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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Wednesday, May 4, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Monetary Policy, Retirement Planning, Investing, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 4 May 2023

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3VGvMUb

A huge theme right now in market punditry is that small caps are under-performing big caps, and that this speaks more to macroeconomic reality than the fact that big-cap companies have mostly hung in there. As the reasoning goes, small-cap companies are more dependent on banks and financing and credit conditions and so struggle more than large-cap names in periods of fed tightening or bank distress. Of course, the corollary to this is that small caps underperforming going into a recession has always led to small caps out-performing coming out of a recession, but all of this is much more useful in hindsight than foresight.

But I would say that I think small caps lagging large caps in periods like this is less related to credit conditions and more related to economic growth. Small cap names in the public sector are more tethered to revenue growth than big cap names, as big cap names have far more control over margins than small cap names do. Revenue is the most tethered to economic growth, and small cap names are more tethered to revenue. If we could look at an index of non-public small businesses, I would imagine it would reflect far more reliance on credit conditions (and of course, the economic cycle), but alas, such an index of non-public small businesses does not exist. But within the universe of publicly traded small cap names, my operating thesis is that revenue growth follows economic growth and big-cap names have more levers at their disposal to squeeze earnings out of slowing revenues than small cap names do.

I have no idea when the cycle bottoms and when it turns, but I do know small-cap’s valuation relative to big-cap is looking quite interesting right about now. Take it for what it is worth.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.3

Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of DC Today. More drama and excitement in the markets today. I'm back in the Newport Beach office

0:24.2

and I want to first make a broader point about something to do with small cap and big cap stocks

0:29.6

and then I'll talk about today's actual market action. There's quite a bit of conversation right now

0:36.2

about whether or not the big outperformance of large

0:39.5

cap to small cap, how small cap stocks are doing worse than larger capitalization companies in

0:45.5

the public stock market is indicative of the credit issues, that there's less amount of credit

0:52.6

flowing through and small cap companies need access

0:56.6

to credit more and therefore they're doing worse than large cap companies. I think it's a fair

1:03.1

summation, but I don't think it's fully accurate. I think if we could index small businesses,

1:10.0

family owned businesses, non-publicly traded,

1:13.9

you know, small cap, meaning real small cap, like mom and pop, family business, what we call

1:19.9

kind of small business in our country. And you were to look at that indexed, which obviously

1:26.6

can't do without price discovery and

1:28.7

public trading of the values.

1:31.2

But if you could, I think that that would look very constrained by essentially what has

1:37.6

happened with credit conditions and financial conditions tightening.

1:41.6

But within the small cap space, publicly-contraded companies, I buy the

1:46.1

argument that there may be some who are more capital dependent, although a lot of large-cap companies

1:51.8

are still very, need great access to the capital markets, whether it's equity or bonds or

1:59.4

what have you.

2:09.4

And so I do wonder if it has more to the growth cyclicality that effectively, what I mean is when economic growth is slowing, you expect revenue to slow.

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