The DC Today - Wednesday, July 12, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 12 July 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Although closing off the highs, stocks and bonds rallied today on cooler-than-expected CPI data, with the headline now at 3.0% year over year. With a 90% chance in fed funds futures still pointing to a 25bps rate increase in two weeks, it was as interesting to see the expectations for a rate cut pull forward from May of next year to March.
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43hXzMY
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.2 | Hello, and welcome to D.C. today. It is Wednesday, 12th of July, coming off of a nice little market rally today, although quite a bit |
| 0:22.8 | off. We were up something around 300 points or so this morning and still closed up about 86 points |
| 0:28.9 | in the day, but drifted a little lower, at least in stocks. Bonds caught a bid today pretty much |
| 0:35.0 | across the board. Yield curve flattened a little bit with two two year yields up a |
| 0:39.8 | little more than than 10 year and all of that was related to inflation data that we got on the day |
| 0:45.2 | from a headline in core cpI so core CPI was expected to go up something in the neighborhood of |
| 0:52.5 | 0.3% for the month and it went up 0.2, so |
| 0:56.0 | less than expected. Year over year was annualized at 3% versus 3.1, which was expected. |
| 1:03.8 | So again, cooler than expected. With Core, so X, Food and Energy, So we've got a 4.8% year over year core reading |
| 1:13.8 | on CPI. So positive, in my opinion for the day. Markets are always a little bit, you know, |
| 1:20.4 | in anticipation of a number that could be bad, a little bit of a discount price dent. So you saw |
| 1:24.3 | that kind of come out. Markets rallied a bit, both in stocks and bonds. All in all, not a negative, a lot of negative to say on the day. If you take those numbers, |
| 1:33.2 | or inside of that number, inside of CPI, some of the notable movers, energy actually was up on the |
| 1:39.5 | month. It had been down in the last read, like 3.5. So it was up 0.6 percent inside of this |
| 1:45.6 | number. So you hit a little rise in energy prices, which in my opinion is a good thing, |
| 1:49.7 | indicative of growing economy and things. You had airline services come down quite a bit. |
| 1:54.2 | I think it was 8 percent, 8.1 percent for the month, which is 14 percent year over year. |
| 1:58.8 | So a big decline in airline costs as sort of that most likely |
| 2:03.3 | travel is kind of coming back in line with more normalcy. But all that to say, if we look back a |
| 2:08.8 | year ago, inflation, and actually like literally a year ago, meaning as of today, inflation peaked at |
| 2:14.8 | around 9.1% CPI. So we've come a long way. and I wrote this in the blog there, you know, if we would have gone |
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