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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Wednesday, July 12, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Monetary Policy, Macro Economics, Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Planning, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 12 July 2023

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Although closing off the highs, stocks and bonds rallied today on cooler-than-expected CPI data, with the headline now at 3.0% year over year. With a 90% chance in fed funds futures still pointing to a 25bps rate increase in two weeks, it was as interesting to see the expectations for a rate cut pull forward from May of next year to March.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43hXzMY

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:13.2

Hello, and welcome to D.C. today. It is Wednesday, 12th of July, coming off of a nice little market rally today, although quite a bit

0:22.8

off. We were up something around 300 points or so this morning and still closed up about 86 points

0:28.9

in the day, but drifted a little lower, at least in stocks. Bonds caught a bid today pretty much

0:35.0

across the board. Yield curve flattened a little bit with two two year yields up a

0:39.8

little more than than 10 year and all of that was related to inflation data that we got on the day

0:45.2

from a headline in core cpI so core CPI was expected to go up something in the neighborhood of

0:52.5

0.3% for the month and it went up 0.2, so

0:56.0

less than expected. Year over year was annualized at 3% versus 3.1, which was expected.

1:03.8

So again, cooler than expected. With Core, so X, Food and Energy, So we've got a 4.8% year over year core reading

1:13.8

on CPI. So positive, in my opinion for the day. Markets are always a little bit, you know,

1:20.4

in anticipation of a number that could be bad, a little bit of a discount price dent. So you saw

1:24.3

that kind of come out. Markets rallied a bit, both in stocks and bonds. All in all, not a negative, a lot of negative to say on the day. If you take those numbers,

1:33.2

or inside of that number, inside of CPI, some of the notable movers, energy actually was up on the

1:39.5

month. It had been down in the last read, like 3.5. So it was up 0.6 percent inside of this

1:45.6

number. So you hit a little rise in energy prices, which in my opinion is a good thing,

1:49.7

indicative of growing economy and things. You had airline services come down quite a bit.

1:54.2

I think it was 8 percent, 8.1 percent for the month, which is 14 percent year over year.

1:58.8

So a big decline in airline costs as sort of that most likely

2:03.3

travel is kind of coming back in line with more normalcy. But all that to say, if we look back a

2:08.8

year ago, inflation, and actually like literally a year ago, meaning as of today, inflation peaked at

2:14.8

around 9.1% CPI. So we've come a long way. and I wrote this in the blog there, you know, if we would have gone

...

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