The DC Today - Wednesday, February 15, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 15 February 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Link - https://bahnsen.co/3xqUhJS
ASK DAVID
“If valuation matters at the time of purchase, why would it not matter at the time of reinvestment of dividends from that same company purchased?”
~ Steve
The simple answer is – it does, and if we felt a company’s valuation was so excessive that we didn’t want dividends reinvested in that company, why would we want to own the company at all? So the question about reinvestment always answers itself. If a dividend shouldn’t be reinvested in the company issuing it, it shouldn’t be owned at all. We apply the SAME criteria to holding a stock that we do buying it – that is, valuation sensitivity and risk/reward prudence.
Now, why would we potentially reject a stock at $225/share, buy it at $150/share, and then still keep it when it is back above $200/share? Is it a matter of just liking it differently now versus when it was first at $225? Less subjectively than that, the entry yield was likely different, the free cash flow projections were likely different, the buffer of safety was different, management forecasts of dividend growth were likely different, and where the company or economic cycle stood was likely different. So criteria always include different inputs and points of emphasis and focus at different times and therefore at different prices.
A company can be at 20x earnings and $100/share, and then 10x earnings and $200/share. Valuation, not price, always and forever. But along with valuation are Free Cash Flow, growth rates, dividend yield, capex expectations, and much more.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.2 | Well, hello and welcome to the Wednesday edition of DC Today. We are over the halfway point of this week. And it was another odd day in |
| 0:23.8 | markets. I want to give you a little breakdown and a couple comments on some of the economic |
| 0:29.3 | data that has come through. First and foremost, just in terms of what happened today in the |
| 0:37.2 | markets. |
| 0:37.7 | The Dow closed up 39 points, but it had been down about not quite 250. |
| 0:44.3 | And so around halfway through the day, it sort of hit a lower point and then rebounded off of that, |
| 0:51.0 | then kind of zigged and zagged in the last hour and a half and closed near the |
| 0:55.4 | high of the day, like I said, up just about 40 points. But from its low of the day, up nearly 300. |
| 1:02.8 | The S&P was up 0.28% and the NASDAQ was up almost 1%, not quite. So continued rally and all that stuff. The tenure, the yield went |
| 1:14.7 | up four and a half basis points to 3.8%. And the top sectors today were communication services |
| 1:23.1 | and consumer discretionary, both up exactly 1.16%. |
| 1:28.3 | Energy was the worst performing sector, down 1.78%. |
| 1:33.3 | Crude oil itself closed still at 78.5. |
| 1:38.3 | And so we're talking about down 0.7%. |
| 1:42.3 | So in terms of some of the inputs today into markets, the retail sales |
| 1:47.9 | were up 3% in January, far more than expected, almost double. Now, that includes things like |
| 1:57.7 | grocery and gas stations and whatnot. And so core retail sales where you take out |
| 2:02.9 | some of that food beverage and energy were up 1.7% of the month, which was still about 70% |
| 2:11.7 | better than the 1% that have been expected. The main thing that I don't know what to say about is that department stores |
| 2:21.7 | were exponentially higher. Their percentage month-over-month growth was massive, and I don't |
| 2:26.9 | have the foggiest idea why that may have been. But it certainly was a very strong retail number, and some might call it a non-recessionary |
... |
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