The DC Today - Wednesday, April 17, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 April 2024
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I
What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off the lows of the day a few hours before closing as well.
Seeing as we all made our tax payments this week, yesterday we saw the US Government take in the most it ever has in tax collections from corporations and non withheld amounts at $155B. The previous high water mark was back in 2022 following a big year prior and reopening after the pandemic when the same April figure was $121B. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expecting total tax receipts for the full year 2024 to come in right near that record level in 2022 at roughly $4.93T. This is good news for the budget deficit and the growth rate of Treasury bill issuance which is set to decline for the first time in two years, although still won’t put us any where near an actual budget surplus when we are talking about chipping away at a $2T deficit.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.3 | Welcome to DC today. This Wednesday, it is April the 17th. |
| 0:19.4 | And kind of a mixed day in markets. It actually started out on the |
| 0:23.3 | day positive in the morning and then kind of gave way pretty soon thereafter. Not a ton of news |
| 0:29.7 | out today, really. And I just think the market is still just sort of consolidating here at this |
| 0:34.6 | point, pricing in some higher interest rates. And then really some of the |
| 0:38.9 | Fed comments from yesterday, Jerome Powell comments about, you know, rate cuts being maybe a little |
| 0:43.9 | later in the year than halfway through the year. And so there were some media headlines grabbing |
| 0:49.3 | attention around, you know, did the Fed take back their pivot that they had from October or not? I don't think |
| 0:55.4 | that's what he met when he said those things. I think he was just stating the facts, which is that |
| 1:00.2 | inflation has been moving sideways rather than lower. And so they wanted more proof of it going |
| 1:07.3 | lower and they need to wait until they until they see that the positive that he said |
| 1:11.4 | and that I'll say is that the economy does it does seem to be hanging in there and earnings |
| 1:16.0 | that have been coming out seem to be also hanging in there so it's not not all bad news at all |
| 1:21.5 | but the market closed lower by about 45 points on the Dow we're basically back to even on the Dow give or take we're up about a quarter point or points on the Dow. We're basically back to even on the Dow, |
| 1:28.8 | give or take. We're up about a quarter point or something on the year. The S&P's up on the year, |
| 1:33.9 | still around 5%. But we've just given some back. I mean, Q2 is a monster quarter. And so, |
| 1:40.1 | you know, if we're four and a half percent off of the all-time highs, so be it. |
| 1:45.7 | The, but today we had Fed beige book. |
| 1:50.3 | This is a pretty thorough analysis of the economy with all districts reporting. |
| 1:56.9 | There's 12 of them, all Fed districts reporting about what they're seeing in their area as far |
| 2:02.7 | as inflation, as far as the economic side of things. |
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