The DC Today - Tuesday, October 24, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 24 October 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tLGlvi
Markets today rallied a bit (though they closed off their highs) as Treasury yields calmed down and leveled out.
Earnings season is not even 20% complete yet, so all projections are quite premature, but thus far, revenue growth is coming in +0.9% year-over-year with earnings growth of +1.2%. There will be more meaty data to chew on in the next week and the week after that, of course.
Republicans nominated Tom Emmer as their new potential Speaker of the House, but it is highly doubtful they have the votes in a full vote of the House to get him approved.
A fair question – are many people buying Treasuries now not as a non-recession call (yields higher because there is no recession), but rather as a recession call (one will come and right now we get 5%, so buy now and then during a recession Treasuries rally and yields fall). In other words, is it a trade? And if it is one, is it a good one? Time will tell.
Was 5% the top in the 10-year? It is obviously way too early to say. It fell pretty quickly below it yesterday and today closed at 4.81%. But the bond market volatility in 2023 doesn’t allow us to read anything whatsoever into 19 basis points or 30 hours.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.1 | Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the DC today. |
| 0:18.8 | A little excitement in the markets today. |
| 0:21.6 | The Dow did close up over 200 points. |
| 0:24.3 | So it was about 62 basis points to the upside. |
| 0:27.1 | S&P was up 73 basis points, caught three quarters of a point. |
| 0:31.2 | NASDAQ was up 93 Bips, call it 1%. |
| 0:34.3 | So all three market indices up on the day. But with the Dow, you'll see in the |
| 0:39.4 | chart at the DC Today.com, there was kind of some zigs and zags up and downs. And yet it did close to |
| 0:45.5 | the upside. So a lot of that may have just been some buying out of some good earnings results for |
| 0:53.6 | some companies this morning. |
| 0:55.8 | We could put a link there in the website, but Coca-Cola had good results, and Verizon had |
| 1:01.3 | just one of the biggest days I think it's ever had to the upside. |
| 1:05.5 | So those things helped lift markets to some degree. |
| 1:09.6 | Now, the other issue is that the tenure was down two basis points. |
| 1:14.1 | So you go, well, that's not much of a rally in bonds. And actually some of the other |
| 1:17.9 | maturities were, were, saw their yields go higher a little bit on the day. But my point being |
| 1:25.0 | it settled that there wasn't like an eight point ups or 10 point down or |
| 1:29.9 | you know, the yields kind of stabilized just for a day. And yesterday going up eight or nine to the |
| 1:37.3 | five percent level, then down from there 15 or so, the 10 year closing today at 4.81 percent so 19 basis points off of that 5 |
| 1:48.2 | percent it for it delved into yesterday there's no way I'm sitting here saying 5 percent on |
| 1:55.2 | Monday October 23rd or whatever was the top however for now, there has been a little bit of stabilization |
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