The DC Today - Tuesday, November 14, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 14 November 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47wGQI7
Markets rallied huge today as bonds rallied in the aftermath of the CPI report.
Interest rates went into total free fall (the 10-year is down a stunning -18 basis points, and the entire 2/10 curve is down 18-21bps in what may be the biggest bond rally of the year and possibly several years) as the CPI number came in at, wait for it, +0% month-over-month (headline inflation). The core number (excluding food and energy) was +0.2% on the month versus +0.3% consensus expectations. Year-over-year, the core CPI was +3.2% versus +3.3% ex-expected.
But there’s more. Rent growth is being measured as +6.8% on the year and rent of primary residence +7.2%. Both are down +1% from recent highs but a minimum of 4% too high versus real-life “current market” metrics. That means assuming 3% shelter inflation (I am being very generous) at a 34% weighting, the 1.35% attribution coming off CPI brings headline inflation to 1.85% and core inflation to 2.65%. So, yeah, the Fed is about to take the credit. And the right teed it up for them. Ay yi yi.
Money supply (as measured by ODL – Other Deposit Liabilities– the best measure of available money in the system for a lot of reasons) has declined now for three straight years. We know it flew higher post-COVID. We know about lags and monetary aggregates and all that jazz. All excess liquidity created out of COVID has been evaporated from the system. And yet, over $1 trillion of debt next year will mature and be re-borrowed at 3-4% higher in cost (as things stand now). And for those who choose not to roll over debt (many companies, some individuals, zero governments), cash reserves will be used (that, my friends, is what you will call lower velocity).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.3 | Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of DC Today. I picked a good day to have this be my last DC today for the day, |
| 0:22.9 | for the week rather. Brian Saitel will fill in for me tomorrow Wednesday as I am off to Dallas. |
| 0:30.4 | And actually, you know what? I think I am doing it Thursday back in California. So I take that back. |
| 0:35.1 | But I will be in Dallas tomorrow Wednesday and, and then back to California from Dallas, Thursday, doing D.C. today and then doing a div cafe on Friday. |
| 0:45.2 | And yet the reason I say today being a good day as the CPI report came out early this morning before the market opened, |
| 0:52.4 | and it gave the bond market the excuse to rally |
| 0:56.0 | that many feared the opposite could happen. And so it wasn't just merely that headline |
| 1:03.3 | inflation came in at 0% month over month. The CPI, both in core and headline, moved less than expected, both the month-over-month |
| 1:15.3 | data, but also what that meant for the year over a year. |
| 1:18.6 | And there was also a little building anxiety that not only would it not be better and expected, |
| 1:25.3 | but it could be worse than expected. |
| 1:26.7 | And so you did have, I think, a fair amount of today's equity market rally representing short covering, |
| 1:32.5 | where shorts had come on saying, what if the core number comes in at 0.4% instead of 0.3 expected. |
| 1:40.3 | And so they put some short positions on in anticipation of that. |
| 1:44.4 | It didn't happen. |
| 1:45.5 | And in fact, it came in at point two instead of point three expected. |
| 1:49.2 | And then that caused bond yields to drop nearly 20 basis points from the two year all the way up to the 10 year on the yield curve. |
| 1:57.5 | And that just resulted in a huge bond rally that turned into a huge equity rally. |
| 2:03.0 | And some of it must have been shorts getting their faces ripped off as we are prone to |
| 2:08.0 | say in my business. |
| 2:10.4 | Every sector was up on the day. |
... |
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