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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Tuesday, May 2, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Monetary Policy, Retirement Planning, Investing, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 2 May 2023

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LLhr5A

Regional banks were hammered today as clearly, the fear is contagious at this time, with some major regionals down -15%, -28%, and even others still down -9% to -12%. Short selling has picked up substantially in this space, so there is a need to watch it rationally and not technically. The basic criteria for them to look for are easy – high amounts of low-rate mortgages on the books, a big gap between mark-to-market values and posted values of the bank’s assets, and the existence of commercial real estate.

The average 3-month CD rate of a bank with $10-50 billion in deposits has gone UP by 0.24% since Silicon Valley Bank failed. The average 3-month CD rate of a bank with over $250 billion in deposits has gone DOWN by 0.36%. This is basically the story of what has gone on – a 60 basis point competitive disadvantage for small banks versus big banks in less than two months.

So that the Fed would be looking to hike rates in this environment is an act of sheer ignorance, and some may say malice. More on that tomorrow.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:15.1

Hello, and welcome to the Tuesday, DC Today. Greetings from beautiful Minnetonka, Minnesota, where the Bonson Group's

0:23.8

office has been for a couple years out here in the wonderful Minneapolis region of the country.

0:29.6

We have enjoyed a very busy day of some client meetings today, doing a lovely client dinner event

0:36.0

tonight. Truly enjoying my time with the great team we have assembled out here in Minneapolis with Phil and Michelle and Stoddard and Sarah and Reed and Matt and our newest member, Megan.

0:49.9

So a wonderful group of people that many of you know.

0:53.6

But I am here for your purposes to briefly

0:57.4

talk about this sell-off in the market today.

1:01.4

The market was pretty much up for the first hour or so, kind of flattish and then sold off

1:06.5

quite a bit, actually at one point down, you know, over 500 points, closed the day down 367.

1:12.2

So for about the last four hours of the day, it had a steady comeback of about 15200 points,

1:19.5

but nevertheless was coming back from a pretty deep sell-off.

1:23.2

That was almost entirely related to ongoing anxiety in the regional bank sector.

1:30.1

You had some pretty well-known regional banks down 25%, 18%, quite a few down in between 9

1:37.6

and 12%.

1:38.7

After hours, I've gone through the particulars of about eight of these banks.

1:48.6

And so there's just no question that there's a pretty organized assault.

1:54.2

You have short selling interest that has increased dramatically. And so the shorts are kind of having their day right now, and it's not rocket science.

1:58.1

They're looking for companies that seem to have a high percentage of assets marked

2:03.7

at a hold of maturity value versus marked market value,

2:08.4

you know, outside of the interest rate component where rates and duration risk have moved prices.

2:14.9

And then, of course, banks that have a lot of low cost,

...

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