The DC Today - Tuesday, March 28, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Retirement Planning, Macro Economics, Investing, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Dividend Growth Investing, Business, Monetary Policy

4.9 • 572 Ratings

🗓️ 28 March 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TNPuMZ

There are two things I think I have amply covered over the last few weeks: (1) Equity market volatility; and (2) the Bond market rally. Both things are true – equities have been all over the map, up and down, even as they are mostly flat (or actually slightly up) since all this banking commotion began. And bonds are indeed up a great deal, with the 1-year yield down a stunning 75 basis points since this began just three weeks ago and the longer end of the curve itself down 50 basis points.

But what is not covered in there is bond market volatility. The swings we have seen in bond yields in the last month are not like anything we have seen since Lehman in 2008. The “VIX” for bonds has elevated beyond what it did during COVID and beyond what it did during the taper tantrum of 2013. This is despite all the quantitative easing that has been done and the general “flight to safety” government bonds represent.

Now, much like equities (if not more so), one could argue these “day to day” swings in bond yields (and therefore in bond prices) really do not matter, and that would be true if all we were talking about was the investment return of one holding these underlying government bonds. But I bring it up because I think it speaks to something more than an expected return in a given asset class, but rather a deeper uncertainty, unpredictability, and general directionlessness that is perhaps permeating more than people understand. The policy milieu is not coherent right now, and rip-roaring bond market volatility says so.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.
0:15.6	Hello and welcome to the Tuesday, D.C. Today, apologize if this getting to you a little later than normal, had a meeting after
0:22.6	the market closed and delayed me putting this together.
0:25.5	But here we are.
0:26.7	First of all, I just want to say you likely got the announcement in your inbox bright and
0:31.7	early this morning.
0:32.4	We're very excited to announce.
0:34.2	I've been holding on to this for quite some time the opening of the Bonson Group's
0:39.6	first office in the great state of Texas. We have secured a brand new, beautiful office in
0:46.3	Austin, Texas, the state's capital. As a matter of fact, we're just a couple of buildings
0:51.2	down from the state capital on Congress Avenue and are very excited to open
0:56.4	May 1 in Austin, Texas and be bringing back to our firm Robert Graham, who was a private
1:02.7	wealth advisor at the Bonson Group for many, many years, and is rejoining us to launch this Texas
1:08.7	office expansion. Couldn't be happier and wanted to share that
1:12.5	news with you. More information, of course, is at our website. So let's talk markets today just
1:17.3	quickly. The Dow was down about 37 points. It had been up, lost that, but then kind of, you know,
1:23.6	didn't end up down that much, about 12 basis points. S&P, not much behind there.
1:29.4	And then the NASDAQ was down closer to half a percent.
1:32.7	Communication services was the worst performing sector today.
1:35.9	And energy was the top performing sector.
1:37.9	It was up, you know, close to one and a half percent, which you recall oil spiked up
1:43.3	yesterday.
	...

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