The DC Today - Tuesday, March 12, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 12 March 2024
⏱️ 10 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wT2REd
A positive trading day in stocks with a fresh new read on CPI that was largely in line with expectations, with both Headline and Core up .4% for the month of February. While these are close to the same print we got in January that caused our 1.5% selloff, February’s read was priced in at this point, and if anything, more reaffirmed that the prior month ticking higher was more a one-off than a new longer-term trend. Yields were modestly higher across the curve, and Fed futures are at 60% for a June rate cut at this point. There is plenty of data from now until then, but all things being equal, our disinflation narrative remains intact.
A quick state of the US labor force:
- Total Labor force participation rate total 16+ years at 62% = Not Great
- Labor force participation rate amongst 25-54 Yr. old’s at 83% = Great
- Labor force participation rate amongst 55+ at 38% = Abysmal (the chart fell off a cliff in the pandemic and hasn’t recovered)
- Total US Labor Force at a total of 160MM employed = Good
The overall participation rate is still historically low at 62% (67%+ would be cooking with grease). Demographically however, with still positive population growth in the US, compared to declining population numbers in some other parts of the world (i.e. Europe, Japan, China), there is an advantage.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.4 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today. It is Tuesday, March the 12th. Thank you for being with me here. |
| 0:22.7 | And a nice positive day in markets to report to you in the indices. |
| 0:27.6 | The Dow is up 235 points. |
| 0:30.6 | The S&P was up over a percent. |
| 0:32.8 | And NASDAQ was up one and a half. |
| 0:34.7 | So positive across the board. |
| 0:37.3 | There was a little weakness across |
| 0:38.7 | treasury curve, but not a lot, pretty modest. Yields rose on 10 year, about five basis points. |
| 0:45.7 | We closed at 4.15. So all this was fairly positive on the day. Yesterday was, you know, |
| 0:51.8 | it's coming off of yesterday's down day, which was angst over today's CPI number, |
| 0:56.8 | and then we get the CPI number. |
| 0:58.8 | And of course, it's about in line. |
| 1:01.7 | Core was slightly higher, but I mean, like half of a percent or something. |
| 1:06.3 | It was just barely higher than expected. |
| 1:11.5 | We got 0.4% for the month of February for both headline |
| 1:15.2 | and then taking out food and energy for core also 0.4%. |
| 1:20.4 | The year over year number for headline was 3.2%, |
| 1:25.0 | which was slightly higher than the 3.1%, the last read. And then for core it was 3.2%, which was slightly higher than the 3.1%, the last read. |
| 1:29.1 | And then for core, it was 3.8 year over year, which was slightly higher, but basically in line from 3.7 that we had last time. |
| 1:37.2 | So, you know, all this to say, I've said this before, but the path to two, two things. |
| 1:43.9 | One, it won't be a straight line exactly, |
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