The DC Today - Tuesday, January 31, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 31 January 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
ASK DAVID “Would you mind giving me your Cribb note version of your expectations on the USD’s devaluation now that Saudi Arabia (and probably others) are willing to trade oil for other currencies than the US dollar? If you expect a significant currency related (not just inflation related) devaluation, do you have an idea of how we can offset that?”
~ D.M.
The main thing to say is that: Saudi has not yet done it, it will take a while to happen, it may happen at very small levels, and we do not expect a significant devaluation from this alone. We do believe it is a shot across the bow geopolitically, but not in fundamental forex (yet).
The major thing for investors to understand is not that the collapse of the dollar is imminent (I wish I had one dollar for every time someone has suggested that or fretted over it in front of me over the last 25 years, for I would surely have a great deal of very spendable and exchangeable and useable dollars). Rather, it is that China is desperately seeking international legitimacy for their Yuan. The rest of this subject is mostly noise. Links mentioned in this episode:
[TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3JMMeP1 DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:15.1 | Well, hello, welcome to the Tuesday DC Today. It's the final DC today of January as we close out the last market day of the |
| 0:23.4 | month. And we closed it out with a bit of a rally. I'm going to give you the numbers real quick |
| 0:28.3 | and make a couple comments. We'll keep it quick today for you. The Dow was up 369 points, |
| 0:34.2 | which was up over 1%. But I'm not going to be able to see how much of that. |
| 0:40.8 | I wanted to give you the exact point number that was in the last 15 minutes. |
| 0:45.4 | But it was, you know, it was kind of up throughout the day steadily. |
| 0:49.6 | And then in the last 15, you got kind of a spike higher. |
| 0:52.9 | The S&P was up 1.46%. so it brought its monthly return to a little over 5. |
| 0:58.9 | The NASDAQ was up 1.67, brought its monthly return to 9.99, basically a 10% month on the NASDAQ. |
| 1:08.9 | The 10-year treasury yield closed at 3.51% that's down four basis points. |
| 1:15.4 | So that is on the year down 37 base. Excuse, yeah, I mean the year and the month, down 37 basis |
| 1:24.4 | points, which is a massive rally for bond prices in the month of January. Today, |
| 1:30.8 | the materials sector and the consumer discretionary sector were both up exactly 2.22 percent, |
| 1:39.4 | tying for first in the lead. Utilities were last place, still up.71 percent. So one of those days, when 11 out of 11 |
| 1:48.3 | sectors are positive, WTI crude oil at 79 plus change, up maybe 20 basis points. So rally day to |
| 1:57.3 | close and we have the Fed tomorrow. Is the market rallying today because it believes |
| 2:03.3 | the Fed's going to say something good tomorrow? Maybe is the market rallying today and the |
| 2:08.2 | fed's going to say something bad tomorrow and the market's wrong? Maybe is the market rallying |
| 2:13.0 | today because there was short covering coming into the final part of the month. Oh, I bet that's pretty likely. |
| 2:20.1 | Is the market rallying today because there's people afraid to go into the Fed Day short? I bet that's |
| 2:25.3 | pretty likely. And is the market rallying because it was the final day of the month and there was |
... |
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