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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Tuesday, January 17, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Monetary Policy, Business, Retirement Planning, Estate Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 17 January 2023

⏱️ 16 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Futures opened last night pretty flat (down a pinch) and dropped to down -50 points or into the evening as the Cowboys were having their way with Tom Brady. This morning futures pointed to a down -50 point open pre-market and that went a bit lower after results from Goldman Sachs. The market opened down close to -200 points and fell further in the next two hours before leveling around that low throughout the day. The reason for the Dow’s much worse result than the other two is that really the Dow’s drop was led by just two financial names. The Dow closed down -392 points (-1.14%), with the S&P down -0.20% and the Nasdaq +0.14%.

The year is off to an interesting start – with just nine days of trading behind us (due to two Monday holidays so far), a lot of “shinies” are up on the year, and yet market breadth has been very strong with the highest percentage of stocks in a 10-day advance since 2020. As good as some of the shinies have done, the equal-weight (average stock) is still doing better than the index itself (cap-weight). The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.55%, up four basis points on the day A pivotally important fact – yes, bond yields are all down, BUT they are down proportionately (essentially, the 2-year has dropped 30bps AND the 10-year and has dropped 30bps, meaning the yield curve inversion has NOT improved) Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+0.44%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Materials (-1.07%) I want to make sure I consistently reiterate my theme with data around the history of growth-value rotations (primarily, that they are secular decade-type rotations, not quarterly or annual ones) Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com]https://bahnsen.co/3IUuwbA DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.8

Well, hello and welcome to a very special DC today. It's special because it's our long-form version, and yet it's a Tuesday,

0:24.6

and this is the second time in just three weeks, the way the year started off, that we happen to have a Monday holiday.

0:32.5

And so I try to do the Monday treatment of D.C. Today on the the Tuesday so as to not rip you off of our

0:39.2

elongated DC Today commentary.

0:42.4

There's a lot today, a lot charts and so forth at the DC Today.com.

0:47.0

And yet I'm going to go through and just kind of hit some of the major points for you watching

0:52.0

the video and listening to the podcast.

0:56.1

The market was down today, 397 points, but, or no, excuse me, 392 points, but don't be

1:04.7

deceived.

1:06.0

The S&P was only down 0.2% and the NASDAQ was up 0.14%.

1:14.0

So this happens some time of time, but it's very rare.

1:18.5

But there are two stocks in the Dow that were down, one over 4%, one over 6%.

1:23.9

And the one down 6% is $380 stock.

1:29.6

And the Dow is price weighted, meaning that the bigger the price of the company, as opposed to the market capitalization, like the S&P is weighted, the bigger impact to the overall index.

1:42.0

It's a very weird way, but it just kind of has worked for 130-something years.

1:48.4

And yet today it became a little bit distorted.

1:50.8

The Dow shows down over 1% yet in reality that just kind of a well over half of the downside

1:57.9

was related to just two companies.

2:00.7

So the futures were down a bit last night.

2:06.3

Not substantially, but you have a three-day holiday weekend.

2:12.2

You don't really know what to make a Monday night action in those situations.

...

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