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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Tuesday, December 12, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Investing, Estate Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Planning, Monetary Policy, Wealth Management, Business, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 12 December 2023

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Nr4A93

A consistently positive trading day on this inflation-day-Tuesday. Both core and headline CPI came out largely in line with expectations and markets were constructive with stocks modestly higher and built on gains into the close and rates down just a few basis points. These numbers are coming out right in time for the December FOMC meeting to end tomorrow with a rate decision (which is at a 100% chance for a continued pause), Fed statement update and Powell presser following.

Continued broadening out in markets with more non mega cap technology names participating. Yesterday by the way, was the first time in over 10 years we had markets up broadly (including a positive Nasdaq) with all seven of the largest technology names (aka Magnificent Seven) all closing lower. Today we had more participation those names, but worth noting the subtle shift in leadership, particularly with Industrials.

A positive dynamic we have spoken about for years but particularly post the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to play out in energy markets. For the month of November, 68% of all US LNG exports were sent to Europe which has now over taken Asia as the number one destination for US LNG exports. Just as tensions between US/China has begun to permanently shift supply chain manufacturing destinations globally, the EU shifting its reliance on Russia for its energy and heating needs isn’t likely to be temporary and is quite positive for the US energy dynamic.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.0

Hello and welcome to D.C. today. It is December the 12th on Tuesday.

0:22.6

And nice day in the market, actually.

0:24.6

We were a little quiet in the morning, and then we ended up just sort of melting higher

0:28.8

for most of the day and kind of built on gains and closed right at the high, at least in

0:33.5

stocks, but on the Dow, but both the NASDAQ and the S&P were also higher on the day.

0:39.3

Bonds were basically unchanged. The rates were down a little bit. The 10 year was down three

0:44.5

bases points, closed it 420 on the 10 year. So big news of the day, there's really just one

0:51.6

kind of data piece, which was CPI data. It was an inflation

0:55.4

read that had been anticipated. And pretty much in line, we had a headline come in at 0.1%

1:03.4

for the month and 3.1% year over year. And the big detractor outside of that, you probably guessed it,

1:09.9

is energy coming down. So gasoline was down 6or outside of that, you probably guessed it, is energy coming down.

1:11.3

So gasoline was down 6% inside of the headline number, which was good. All of that was basically

1:19.4

right in line with expectations. Actually, on the month, I think that it was unchanged is what was

1:25.2

expected, but basically the same.

1:27.9

We're talking about 0.1.

1:30.3

On Core, we had a 0.3% month over month change, again, right in line with expectations,

1:36.5

and then the year number, again, we're stripping out things like food and energy.

1:40.2

So energy was the big pullback inside of the headline number.

1:43.2

So core, the year over year number is still 4% on the year.

1:47.7

So still a little sticky, I guess, year-over-year, but we've talked about this many times.

1:52.5

And I won't spend a lot of time today talking about it again.

...

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