The DC Today - Tuesday, April 11, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 11 April 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3moAxo7
Days like today tend to be pretty boring because stock and bond markets are limited in what they are likely to do a day ahead of a news announcement like tomorrow’s CPI reading. The fed funds futures have a 70% chance right now for a quarter-point rate hike next month, and we will see how markets respond to the CPI tomorrow. In the meantime, I tried to make some stuff up today to keep you interested. =)
I’ll put it here instead of down below, but the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has stayed at a low level in March, February, and January. Now, it hasn’t gone much lower from each of those months, but it has stayed level at a spot that is pretty near where it was ten years ago. Their access to capital (particularly from banks) has dropped substantially, and the confidence one would deduce from hiring plans and capex plans is just not there. It isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t good. The number one issue cited: uncertainty over the economy.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed wants to resolve their uncertainty the hard way.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:15.2 | Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the DC Today, about as boring a day as you could hope for, |
| 0:22.6 | based on the fact that all eyes in the stock and bond market are on the CPI number |
| 0:29.0 | coming out tomorrow. |
| 0:31.0 | So the Consumer Price Index data for the month of March will We'll release tomorrow morning, |
| 0:37.9 | and then we will sort of see what adjust in the Fed Fund's futures market, |
| 0:44.4 | obviously in stock valuations, and in the bond market itself. |
| 0:49.1 | But I want to give you a quick example of what I'm referring to here. |
| 0:53.0 | In today's market action, why, when I say things |
| 0:57.3 | were kind of boring, you had a 10-year bond yield that went up a grand total of one basis point, |
| 1:04.2 | a 30-year that went up zero basis points, three-month and six-month, excuse me, the six- month was down one basis point, three month, down four. |
| 1:15.9 | You had very, very little movement around the bond market. |
| 1:19.8 | Bond yields from the short end of the long end barely moving at all. |
| 1:24.3 | But then when we look at the equity markets, on one hand, the Dow was up 98 points. It had |
| 1:30.5 | been up almost 200, came off of that a little. So you go, okay, well, 100 to 200 points isn't bad. |
| 1:35.8 | But the S&P 500 was up 0.00% literally flat as could be. |
| 1:46.3 | The NASDAQ was technically down about 50 points. |
| 1:49.1 | You had a couple big tech companies that had an issue there. |
| 1:53.0 | But when you're talking about both bonds and S&P hugging around that flat line, |
| 1:58.3 | in the midst of what's been a higher vol environment the volatility has been |
| 2:02.3 | elevated in both stocks and bonds all you're really looking at is people just saying today is a wasted |
| 2:08.5 | day to get to tomorrow and the reason people are so amped up about tomorrow is to see if you do get |
... |
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