The DC Today - Thursday, September 28, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 28 September 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/468UHnU
This morning, we had a slew of economic data that moved markets modestly to the upside in stocks and bonds in a fairly positive trading day throughout the session. Q2 GDP revision was largely unchanged, jobless claims were better than expected, and Core PCE revision was also unchanged.
Yields moved lower across the curve following the releases, which put some wind in the sails for most risk assets today. The inverted yield curve is slowly but surely becoming less so as longer rates rise, and is now half of what it was a month ago at 47 bps on 2/10’s from over 100 bps.
With short rates anchored closer to Fed Funds, why are longer rates moving higher? A combination of the Fed’s QT, Japan’s exit of Yield Curve control, US budget deficits and less Treasury demand from China on falling exports.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.0 | Hello and welcome to DC Today. |
| 0:16.5 | My name is Brian Saitel. It's good to be with you all again this afternoon. It is Thursday, |
| 0:21.9 | September the 28th already. So we're in the last week of September here. Getting close to fourth |
| 0:27.9 | quarter. Fairly modest, mostly higher day on the market, which was nice to see. We've had kind of a |
| 0:33.5 | tough month here. The Dow's down about 3% or so far in the month of September. It's |
| 0:38.4 | nice to see a little bit positive day. And there was a couple of different pieces of economic |
| 0:42.4 | data that came out that sort of put a little bit of the wind and sales behind some risk |
| 0:46.7 | assets, both in stocks and bonds. The market closed up 116 points on the day. Kind of a tight |
| 0:52.8 | range, too. It was nice to see kind of a lack of volatility. |
| 0:56.2 | Volatility been rising the past couple of, we're really for the month, but especially the past week |
| 1:01.4 | or so. And we saw the VIX come down about 4% on the day. And interest rates across the curve |
| 1:07.7 | after this data that came out that I'll explain were a little lower. |
| 1:12.4 | And so we've seen rates pop up quite a bit this month and that came off a little bit. |
| 1:15.9 | So the stock's built a little bit better and which means bond prices were a little bit higher |
| 1:20.5 | and again volatility lower. So the the data that we saw was really revision. So we had a GDP number |
| 1:27.2 | for Q2 revised to be in line in the same. |
| 1:30.7 | There was a component of it, which was the consumer spending part of it, consumption, which |
| 1:35.6 | really came down quite a bit inside of that number. It was a 1.7% attribution before and now it's |
| 1:41.5 | only 0.8. So it was come down by about half. And believe it or not, |
| 1:46.5 | I think that it was perceived as somewhat good. It means that spending is slowing a little bit, |
| 1:52.0 | which means that, you know, the economy's cooling a bit. It kind of gives a little bit more to the |
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