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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Thursday, September 21, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Macro Economics, Wealth Management, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Retirement Planning, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 21 September 2023

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48s8IyG

The violence was most felt in the bond market as yields rallied dramatically at the long end of the curve. As yields did not move much (or at all) in the short end of the curve, you saw a fair amount of inversion eroded. It is all a rate story now – as stocks are following bonds, not vice versa. QT is tightening, and high rates are tightening (with the bond market doing more of it for them). Something has to break eventually.

The Bank of England also left its interest rate alone, pausing after 14 consecutive increases.

The House GOP was four votes short of having the votes needed to advance their compromise funding bill. Some tweaks are in motion to allow for a new vote next week.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:12.0

Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of the DC today. A little sell-off in the markets today. The NASDAQ down another 1.8%.

0:24.9

The S&P down 1.65.

0:28.0

And then the Dow itself was down about 1%, 370 points.

0:33.7

So you really are looking right now at a stock market that is entirely following the bond

0:42.1

market.

0:43.1

And what's really interesting is that the yield curve, which has been very inverted, uninverted

0:49.2

quite a bit today.

0:51.0

Now it's still inverted, but what I mean is the severity of the inversion came in quite a bit today. Now it's still inverted, but what I mean is the severity of the inversion came

0:55.1

in quite a bit. As the short end of the curve basically didn't move, you know, 90-day bonds,

1:03.8

one year, you know, short-term, those yields didn't move and the longer end yields went up about

1:10.8

15 basis points. you got to near

1:12.7

four and a half percent on the 10 year Treasury so really you're getting tightening

1:22.3

in financial conditions in in terms of liquidity cost to capital from the bond market

1:31.1

even where the Fed has chosen to pause at least you're getting that from the long

1:36.8

end of the curve I am starting to wonder I need to do more analysis about it I

1:41.3

may end up deciding to turn this into my Dividend

1:44.1

Cafe talk tomorrow, my Dividend Cafe writing. If quantitative tightening, which has been

1:52.1

largely ignored throughout this tightening process, which has largely been assumed to be benign,

1:58.1

but has been running as a two-headed monster with the Fed's 525 basis point hiking

2:07.4

of the Fed funds rate if perhaps what we're starting to see now is really the impact

2:14.8

of quantitative tightening.

...

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