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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Thursday November 3, 2022

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Wealth Management, Monetary Policy, Retirement Planning, Estate Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Business, Macro Economics, Investing

4.9 β€’ 572 Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 3 November 2022

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 – still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID β€œI enjoy listening to your podcasts – thank you for the insights!

I am sitting on cash – about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.”

~ Adrian

One first has to start with the basic principles – not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each β€œbad” down day in markets deploying more).

I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.5

Hello and welcome to the DC today. You have no idea how quickly I have arrived from the airport. I flew very early out of

0:25.0

Grand Rapids, Michigan this morning through Denver, came back to Newport Beach, right as the market

0:29.7

was closing, and now I'm sitting in the studio of our Newport office recording today's DC today.

0:35.7

It was an interesting day in the markets. Of course,

0:38.8

because my day starts so early and I was on East Coast, I was really early into the futures.

0:44.4

And I would have bet that you were going to have a real significant sell-off today as the futures

0:51.2

were piling on the late day sellout from yesterday.

0:55.7

And it ended up being a very bizarre day.

0:58.5

Not only did the Dow open down a couple of points and then worsened, but then it came

1:03.6

all the way back up and actually went positive.

1:06.4

And then in the final 15 minutes or so, we're back to this charade again.

1:10.8

It dropped off.

1:11.8

But the Dow closed down only 146 points.

1:17.1

Now, the S&P was down over 1%, a little bit over 1.

1:21.2

And the NASDAQ was down 1.73.

1:24.4

You combine that to what the NASDAQ sell-off was yesterday.

1:33.3

Now you're starting to talk about a real sell-off, but very little, very benign, especially over three, four, five-day period in the Dow, in value, in old line companies, and blue chips.

1:40.3

But yeah, this is pretty significant drawdown now in the last few days on the on the tech side.

1:46.2

Tech was the worst performing sector today.

1:48.3

It was down 3%.

1:50.7

Communication services.

...

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