The DC Today - Thursday November 3, 2022
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 β’ 572 Ratings
ποΈ 3 November 2022
β±οΈ 13 minutes
ποΈ Recording | iTunes | RSS
π§ΎοΈ Download transcript
Summary
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 β still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID βI enjoy listening to your podcasts β thank you for the insights!
I am sitting on cash β about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.β
~ Adrian
One first has to start with the basic principles β not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each βbadβ down day in markets deploying more).
I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.5 | Hello and welcome to the DC today. You have no idea how quickly I have arrived from the airport. I flew very early out of |
| 0:25.0 | Grand Rapids, Michigan this morning through Denver, came back to Newport Beach, right as the market |
| 0:29.7 | was closing, and now I'm sitting in the studio of our Newport office recording today's DC today. |
| 0:35.7 | It was an interesting day in the markets. Of course, |
| 0:38.8 | because my day starts so early and I was on East Coast, I was really early into the futures. |
| 0:44.4 | And I would have bet that you were going to have a real significant sell-off today as the futures |
| 0:51.2 | were piling on the late day sellout from yesterday. |
| 0:55.7 | And it ended up being a very bizarre day. |
| 0:58.5 | Not only did the Dow open down a couple of points and then worsened, but then it came |
| 1:03.6 | all the way back up and actually went positive. |
| 1:06.4 | And then in the final 15 minutes or so, we're back to this charade again. |
| 1:10.8 | It dropped off. |
| 1:11.8 | But the Dow closed down only 146 points. |
| 1:17.1 | Now, the S&P was down over 1%, a little bit over 1. |
| 1:21.2 | And the NASDAQ was down 1.73. |
| 1:24.4 | You combine that to what the NASDAQ sell-off was yesterday. |
| 1:33.3 | Now you're starting to talk about a real sell-off, but very little, very benign, especially over three, four, five-day period in the Dow, in value, in old line companies, and blue chips. |
| 1:40.3 | But yeah, this is pretty significant drawdown now in the last few days on the on the tech side. |
| 1:46.2 | Tech was the worst performing sector today. |
| 1:48.3 | It was down 3%. |
| 1:50.7 | Communication services. |
... |
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