The DC Today - Thursday, March 30, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 30 March 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3G3Vdsa
So the market went up again today, went negative in the middle of the day, then rallied back in the second half of the day (see chart below). The FDIC is looking to move the cost of the recent bank failures to the banks that didn’t fail (read: to their customers), Sen. Joe Manchin has decided he regrets his support of the “Inflation Reduction Act” atrocity, I wrote of extraordinary bond market volatility two days ago, and then we went two days in a row with bonds frozen in time, and Dr. Anthony Fauci has himself a speaking gig (not sure if it will be virtual or not?).
I remain convinced that the key issue adding to profitability in the energy sector going forward is constrained supply, much of which is a decision and some of which is circumstantially forced. Sen. Manchin’s op-ed mentioned above may reflect a sitting U.S. Senator shocked – shocked! – to discover that many do not want to facilitate U.S. energy independence, but it is not a shock at all. And what it does is make the sector even more attractive as it pertains to legacy and incumbent assets, pipelines, and producers. The sector is capital constrained, which boosts expected rates of return for the capital that comes in. It is supply constrained, which boosts prices and margins for the supply that comes online. And it is sentiment constrained, which boosts risk premium around as a contrarian reality. It will ebb and flow, no doubt, but what the opponents of our U.S. energy sector never understand is that all the bad things are actually good things for investors.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.9 | Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of DC Today. I actually just ran up to the room to record. I've been at a summit |
| 0:23.4 | meeting here in Washington, D.C. I spoke earlier in the afternoon and there's been a number of |
| 0:29.8 | other speakers and sessions. We have a big dinner event tonight and then I am flying home tomorrow |
| 0:35.7 | back to California. But of course, did not want to leave you hanging. So I'm tomorrow back to California. |
| 0:40.0 | But, of course, did not want to leave you hanging. So I'm up here to record this podcast and video and bring you a couple daily market thoughts. |
| 0:47.5 | The first thing I want to say just as far as the market itself goes today is the market got up a couple hundred points and then went |
| 0:55.7 | down actually went negative at one point. |
| 0:58.7 | And then it came all the way back by the end of the day. |
| 1:02.3 | I think, let's see, no, we closed up 142 points. |
| 1:05.8 | So not all the way to its high of the day, but nevertheless, another triple digit move higher. |
| 1:11.7 | I also want to call myself out on the bond volatility factor. |
| 1:16.7 | I wrote, I believe it was two days ago about how we've had a bond market rally. |
| 1:21.8 | We've had high equity volatility. |
| 1:24.3 | And then the thing that people are not really talking about is how incredibly high the volatility and the bond market's been. |
| 1:30.8 | And then we have, since I wrote that, had two days in a row where you would think the bond market died. |
| 1:36.5 | It just hasn't moved at all. |
| 1:39.7 | And so this is the life I chose. |
| 1:42.5 | But bond volatility had been very high, and then I wrote about it, |
| 1:45.8 | and now the last two days it has not. |
| 1:49.0 | What else in the world? |
| 1:52.7 | The FDIC's move to take some of this $123 billion they want to recuperate and ask the big banks to kind of pick up the cost, |
... |
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