The DC Today - Thursday, March 21, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 21 March 2024
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vpQejx
Markets built on yesterdays rally today closing higher for a third straight session. For the markets, the porridge-is-just-right narrative around the balance of strong economic and employment backdrop combined with disinflation and a Fed that is now talking about slowing QT and accepting PCE at 2.6% this year (vs 2%) before they would begin cutting interest rates. Today we also had jobless claims and existing home sales both positive and supportive of that narrative as well. Keep in mind please, that markets are a forward looking pricing mechanism, and a lot of soft-landing narrative at this point is fully baked in. The question will be on fundamentals keeping up with those higher valuations names from here, and I still suspect there will be the haves vs. have-nots in that regard and the time for being selective here is very important.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.1 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today on Thursday. Today is March 21st. And it's great to be with you here as it always is on another nice |
| 0:23.3 | update here. So we've got follow through from yesterday's nice rally of 400 points again today. |
| 0:30.2 | Another big update. Rates on the day were basically unchanged. And so we're just still digesting |
| 0:35.7 | more or less what the Fed went through yesterday with their |
| 0:38.5 | statement and press conference. And, you know, like I mentioned yesterday, they did have mention |
| 0:43.0 | on quantitative tightening and just starting to ease that back a little bit. That's meaningful |
| 0:47.5 | to markets. And then they added a PCE goal for the year, target, a 2.6, you know, which is on the way to 2%, but not at 2%. And so I think it's just where things are going and knowing they need to start easing policy before they actually get to 2%. There's still the three cuts priced in for this year. I think those things are good. And so markets are feeling good about all those things. And my comment is just, just remember that markets |
| 1:11.5 | price things in in advance. A lot of that step is baked in at this point. I don't want people to get |
| 1:15.9 | too ahead of themselves. There's a lot of soft landing narrative and good things now priced into |
| 1:21.9 | markets. And so I suspect going forward, it's going to be about how those company fundamentals |
| 1:26.6 | are going to keep pace with |
| 1:28.2 | what the valuations of their names are actually trading at. I think some will do better than others, |
| 1:31.9 | and I think it's a time to be very selective. But all in all, generally speaking, the numbers today, |
| 1:38.7 | the economic numbers were also all pretty supportive of that soft landing narrative. We had jobless claims that were about in line. |
| 1:47.3 | We got a 210 number versus about a 215 expectation. So that's a little bit less on jobless, |
| 1:54.4 | initial jobless claims. That's a good thing. Existing claims were actually a little higher. |
| 1:58.9 | So people that are unemployed are staying that way for longer. |
| 2:02.0 | But generally speaking, the employment picture is still very positive. We had a existing home sales |
| 2:07.6 | number today that was quite a bit better than expected. It was 9.5% for the month at 4.44 houses. And that was |
| 2:15.1 | better than expected. And so you're continuing to see positive things in real estate and housing and support |
| 2:20.2 | for it. |
... |
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