The DC Today - Thursday, January 18, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 18 January 2024
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vIRb6n
A positive morning of trading in markets gave way to losses mid-day, only to gain it all back and then some as we headed towards the close, ending up 200 points. Interestingly, the correlation between rates and stocks today actually moved together with both rising, where the opposite has been the case much of this year. 10’s are moving further into four handle territory up to 4.14% as rates crept back up today with a stronger jobless claim number. We are at about a 54% chance on futures for a March rate cut at this point.
We are still early in earnings season, but it has been notable that while 92% of companies reported thus far have exceeded expectations, 58% of them have actually traded lower on the news. A combination of some exuberance over lower rates this year coming out of markets and just some general consolidation after the year-end run-up seems to be at play. I find this consolidation healthy, and with an advance decline ratio only back to -3:1, I doubt we have seen the last of it. More in the link below.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:15.5 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today. It's Thursday, and it's good to be with you all here today in the Newport Beach |
| 0:22.8 | office. And we've had a lovely week of many client meetings and gatherings and a lot of different |
| 0:29.4 | TBG employees from other offices in the office. So it's been a good week, a lot of energy. |
| 0:36.1 | But I've got a few data points for you today. |
| 0:38.4 | We can go through the market actually opened up on the day, which was nice. |
| 0:43.4 | We actually traded lower about mid-day or so, and part of that, I believe, was interest |
| 0:48.4 | rates moving up a little bit through the day. |
| 0:51.0 | We actually got a little better than expected jobless claims number in there. |
| 0:56.6 | And so we ended up closing higher on the day nicely. It was up 201 points on the Dow. So we'll |
| 1:02.8 | take that. Tens traded up a bit on the day. We were up about four basis points. We closed it |
| 1:09.6 | 414 on the 10-year treasury. |
| 1:12.8 | So rates are handily in the 4% range at this point. |
| 1:17.8 | And some of those expectations on Fed funds futures, |
| 1:23.1 | where they're going to either lower rates in March |
| 1:25.1 | or do the first rate cut or potentially it'll be sometime in |
| 1:28.6 | June, keep sort of sliding a little bit lower. So we were 75% were at about 54% as of today |
| 1:36.0 | on whether they're cut rates in March. And honestly, whether they cut rates in March or whether |
| 1:42.3 | they wait until June, what's priced in for most of |
| 1:44.9 | 2024 is assuredly lower. And I think that's a good thing. And now we've we've spoken about that |
| 1:50.4 | quite a bit. So yeah, I mean, there's been some consolidation in markets. We're down slightly on the |
| 1:56.6 | year, not a lot. You know, 1% on the Dow, a little bit more than that, but not a lot. And so |
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