The DC Today - Thursday, February 9, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 9 February 2023
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The DC Today - Thursday, Feb 9 - https://bahnsen.co/40IKvQA
Ask Trevor “It doesn’t seem like stocks have a believable catalyst to go up from here, wouldn’t it be wise to sell stocks and buy a short term treasury for the guaranteed interest?”
I can sympathize with the premise here – if earnings face some headwinds, and rising rates compress multiples, you want to know what drives stock prices higher from here. The real answer is I don’t know and this is the right answer because it is unknowable. Now, we could craft a reasonable narrative of what could happen, and how things might play out, but we’d never speculate on a hypothesis like this.
For me, I like to approach portfolio construction by categorizing each dollar into one of two categories – money earmarked to be spent in the near future and money set aside to grow over the long run. With this framing in mind, a conversation about swapping stocks for treasuries is an apples-and-oranges discussion. Stocks will irritate you in the short run, and yet history has shown a reward for the patient long-term investor, we call this a risk premium.
Portfolio design made simple is all about matching the appropriate investment based on a well-defined time horizon. If you ever find yourself trying to invest long-term monies in short-term solutions or vice versa, you are participating in some version of market timing.
Based on my own experience, I know I can’t time the markets in a consistent or profitable manner. I also know I have never really met anyone who can. So, if it walks like market timing, talks like market timing, it’s probably market timing, and you can’t count me out.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.5 | Welcome to DC Today. David Bonson is in none other than Austin, Texas today. He's going to be speaking at event |
| 0:21.9 | sponsored by, what is it, the University of Texas Law School. So he'll be there today |
| 0:29.0 | and speaking, I believe, tomorrow. He'll be back tomorrow with the long-form Dividing Cafe. |
| 0:35.8 | Markets were interesting today. |
| 0:40.6 | If you watch, markets started out strong. |
| 0:46.1 | And if you go to the written, you'll see it was basically just a mountain downhill. |
| 0:52.7 | Nothing meaningful to the downside, but all the gains we opened with were absolutely given away. |
| 0:56.4 | So the Dow Jones was down 248 points. That relates to being down 0.73%. S&P was down 0.88% and the NASDAQ was down 1.02%. |
| 1:05.0 | The 10-year treasury didn't move a ton to two basis points. It went up to 3.66%. You will note, though, that that rate is a bit |
| 1:13.3 | higher, right? We saw the 10-year treasury floating for the last couple weeks around 3.5%. Some of the |
| 1:19.8 | talks you heard yesterday from Fed representatives seeming a little bit more hawkish on what they |
| 1:25.7 | might need to do with the Federal Reserve |
| 1:28.4 | rate, and you're starting to see the impact that has on short-term rates, and then a little bit |
| 1:34.2 | of a nudge it has on kind of that 10-year treasury. The top performing sector day was consumer |
| 1:39.6 | discretionaries. They were negative, so every sector was down today. Consumer discretionaries |
| 1:43.8 | were down about 0.2% while |
| 1:47.2 | communication services were down 2.8%. So fairly widespread from the best and worse, but all were negative. Oil was also down today about 1.06%. Oil is now at $77.64. |
| 2:01.0 | A barrel. |
| 2:02.0 | I wish I had a lot of economic news to talk to you about today. |
| 2:06.2 | Absolutely. |
| 2:08.0 | Actually, I wish I could talk to you about NBA basketball |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.