The DC Today - Thursday, February 8, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 February 2024
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42FOvmj
Stocks rose modestly again today as we flirted with a five handle milestone on the SP500 intra day but closed just two points below. We are up 13 of the last 14 weeks, which is technically the longest streak since 1986. Good thing there wasn’t volatility the following October (joking aside 87’ still closed higher on the year believe it or not). All said, earnings have been quite good, the Fed is on hold for now with the next move lower rather than higher, employment and GDP are quite good, and inflation is subsiding, so the path of least resistance has been higher.
Elsewhere, with year over year decline in CPI out today the slowdown in China post pandemic has been one that few, if any, predicted. After decades of record economic growth aided by a rapidly expanding population and industrialization, growth has been slowing. There isn’t anything different about this playing out in China as it did in Europe and then the US mind you, it just happened faster because of technology and productivity being more advanced than in previous periods. Demographics in the country have also begun to shift. Today, 18% of the population is over the age of 60, and by the year 2032 over 32% will be, which will surpass that of the US. This isn’t to say there isn’t growth in China, it still grew GDP by 5.2% last year, but would you like to guess what the 30 year annual compounded return in the market has been there? -2.1% per year or about zero including dividends.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.9 | Hello, welcome to D.C. today. It's February the 8th, which is a Thursday. And Brian Sightel with you again, it's nice to be here. As we get |
| 0:23.8 | closer to the end of the week here, we had another nice day in markets today. The Dow closed |
| 0:28.1 | up 48 points, kind of a flattish day, but we were just sort of flirting all day with this 5,000 |
| 0:33.7 | level on the S&P. And so I had written a little intro about my memories of the S&P in different periods of time. |
| 0:40.3 | And of course, it wasn't able to include it because it didn't close above 5,000. |
| 0:44.1 | But we closed two points below, 5,000. |
| 0:49.1 | But, you know, with things basically more, you know, more biases to the upside with things basically fairly good. You have the Fed on hold. Earnings have been good. You know, with things basically more, you know, more biases to the upside with things basically |
| 0:54.7 | fairly good. |
| 0:55.5 | You have the Fed on hold. |
| 0:56.6 | Earnings have been good. |
| 0:58.1 | You know, GDP is in line and coming in, you know, just fine. |
| 1:01.9 | Unemployments holding in, inflation's pulling back. |
| 1:04.8 | And so path of least resistance is a little bit melting higher in stocks. |
| 1:08.7 | You've had 10-year rates drift up a little bit too. They were up |
| 1:11.7 | three basis points today, closed at 412 on tens. And technically this is the, we're up 13 out of 14 weeks |
| 1:23.5 | in S&P right now. So that's the longest streak since 1986. And good thing, there wasn't |
| 1:30.1 | much volatility the following October. All joking aside, the market was up in 87 after that |
| 1:37.4 | big sell-off on Black Monday. But all that to say, markets have been acting quite nicely. VIX, the volatility is still quite low, and we're kind of humming along here. |
| 1:49.1 | There was inflation data out of China today, CPI and PPI. CPI came out for the month of January at 0.3, so a small game, but year over year, it's down 0.8. |
| 2:00.1 | So deflation, that's definition there. |
| 2:03.2 | PPI is down 2.5% year over year. |
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