The DC Today - Thursday, February 29, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 February 2024
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3uKcswq
A positive day in markets this Leap Year Thursday centered around PCE data that was inline with estimates for the month of January with December being revised lower. Headline year over year PCE rose 2.4%, and removing food and energy, Core PCE increased 2.8% from a year earlier. The dichotomy for 2023 was between goods price deflation of -.5% and services price inflation of 3.9%. So where does this all leave us? T
his was the last major inflation data point prior to the FOMC meeting on 3/20, so the Fed is leaving rates unchanged in March, most likely the same (as of now) in May, with about a 50/50 chance for a rate cut in June. The bond market, fed futures, and the Fed’s own dot plots are estimating 75 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.3 | Hello, and welcome to D.C. today here on Thursday. It's February 29th, which I don't get to say all that often. In fact, only about every four years. |
| 0:22.6 | Whichever one happy leap year here. It's going to be with you all. We had a good day in markets. The markets were up. |
| 0:29.6 | Dow was up about 47 points, closed just off of the highs. So we built on some gains into the close, which is great. |
| 0:35.6 | And as had been anticipated, we got our |
| 0:39.2 | PCE data out today. We had the headline number up 0.3% for the month of January, and which |
| 0:48.1 | registered a 2.4% year-over-year number. That was down from 2.6 last month so the year over year number continues to |
| 0:56.1 | trend lower on headline which is really good same thing with core if you strip out food and energy |
| 1:02.0 | we were up 0.4% for the month of January which is what most of the media headlines are capturing |
| 1:08.1 | you know that inflation has ticked up. But it was widely |
| 1:11.0 | expected that that was going to be the case. And then year over year, we still ticked down to 2.8% |
| 1:17.4 | on core PCE versus a year ago. That's down from 2.9. So both numbers were in line, almost exactly |
| 1:25.1 | in line, frankly, and both showing continued progress towards |
| 1:29.0 | 2%. Fed futures today were not very much changed. This is the last data point or the last |
| 1:34.3 | major data point before we get our March 19th and 20th Fed meeting. So they're on hold in March. |
| 1:40.1 | They're likely on hold in May, unless something dramatically changes, which is possible. |
| 1:46.1 | And then we've got about a 50-50 for a cut in June. |
| 1:49.8 | And that's where the bond market is now priced in. |
| 1:52.6 | It's where Fed Futures is. |
| 1:54.7 | And I think that's fine given the data that we have. |
| 1:57.4 | We still have more data to go. |
| 1:58.8 | And so these things can change. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.