The DC Today - Thursday, February 15, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 15 February 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bySeX3
A consistently positive trading day in markets from start to finish, with the Dow closing at the highs for the day up 348 points. Yields have also settled in the last few sessions, which, as Tuesday’s knee-jerk move higher, gets normalized. Both the Empire and Philadelphia manufacturing index numbers came in meaningfully above expectations, and jobless claims also beat, so a few good data points in economic fundamentals.
We did get a second quarter of contracting GDP for Q4 out for both the UK and Japan, indicating recessions in both countries. Japan has now lost its third-place spot on the global GDP stage to Germany, falling to fourth. I mentioned this a few quarters ago, but it will be very difficult for central banks to stick to higher interest rates in slower-growth areas of the world. Stagflation will be something to watch in some of these areas if unemployment rises faster than inflation falls, but either way, rate cuts are soon to follow.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.3 | Hello, welcome back to DC today on Thursday, February 15th. Great to be back with you all again from Newport Beach, California, |
| 0:21.2 | in the nice studio we have here. And also nice day in markets. If I could have a chart every day |
| 0:25.9 | that looked like today's chart, I will take that on basically any investment because it |
| 0:29.6 | really just kept climbing higher the entire day. We closed at the highs. The Dow was up 348 points, |
| 0:35.7 | which is nice. S&P and the NASDAQ were below. |
| 0:38.9 | Part of that move was large-cap energy. |
| 0:41.3 | Oil was up 2% today. |
| 0:43.2 | So you had some energy stocks on the move higher, |
| 0:45.8 | which is good to see. |
| 0:47.3 | The 10-year yield closed at 424, so it down two bips on the day. |
| 0:51.7 | Not a lot of movement there, |
| 0:52.8 | although after Tuesday's inflation data, |
| 0:56.3 | you know, in the run-up and rates, we've now given back quite a bit of that run-up. And the |
| 1:00.9 | tenure is about nine basis points higher than before that number, and the two years up maybe |
| 1:05.9 | 10 basis points. So really, that's not much at all, as best as I can tell you. Jobless numbers today were |
| 1:12.4 | a little better than expected. We got 212 for January versus 220. Again, labor market still looks |
| 1:18.2 | really good in my terms, and I just don't buy into the fact that some have said that we need to |
| 1:24.0 | have unemployment in order to see inflation coming down. Inflation is moving lower anyway. So we'll hopefully keep those jobs. And again, I'd say good news is just good news, |
| 1:33.8 | rather than reading into it more than that. Manufacturing data today out of Empire State and also |
| 1:39.4 | Philadelphia, both better than expected. So some bright spot in manufacturing. Again, good news is good. And then on the economic side, retail sales was disappointed. My caveat in what I wrote is just month to month, trying to understand what consumers are going to spend their money on and how they're going to do it, I just think, |
| 2:01.3 | as a moving target. I wouldn't read into it too much, especially just for one month. And we can see |
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