The DC Today - Thursday, December 15, 2022
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 15 December 2022
⏱️ 14 minutes
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Summary
So the Dow gave back Monday’s gain today and a tad more, but with today’s -764 point day in the Dow, the market finds itself a couple of hundred points off where it was just last Friday. And the bond market rally continued again today as yields fell again. All of this is carefully dissected in today’s podcast and video …
Dow: down -764 points (-2.25%) S&P: down -2.49% Nasdaq: down -3.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (-0.53%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.78%) and Communication Services (-3.84%) WTI Crude Oil: $76.20/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
Retail Sales fell -0.6% in November, and even ex-autos were down -0.2%. Much of this was related to the strong number of October, off of which this drop is based. Nominal GDP expectations for Q4 will come down if consumer activity is less than expected. Industrial Production fell -0.2% vs. expectations of a +0.1% increase. Initial jobless claims were down 20k to 211k. Continuing claims are at their highest level since February (at 1.67 million).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.7 | Well, hello, and welcome to the DC Today Thursday edition, final DC today of the week. |
| 0:22.9 | We will be back at you tomorrow with the Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:27.3 | I've already begun writing what I think will be a kind of longer dividend cafe exploring |
| 0:33.4 | the state of inflation and kind of where things are under the hood in light of this week's |
| 0:40.8 | CPI number and what it just kind of means since this inflationary episode began, where we |
| 0:47.6 | stand and where we believe we are going. |
| 0:51.0 | So definitely check out Dividend Cafe this weekend. |
| 0:54.4 | Mark and Scott hit today in what's become a pretty recurring theme where the moments after a Fed |
| 1:01.1 | announcement are spent with a really mixed bag of hedges being unwound or speculative trades being |
| 1:10.0 | unwound and there being a real difficulty |
| 1:12.6 | getting transparency in markets as to what a response may be, and then in the next day, |
| 1:20.6 | getting a bigger move. |
| 1:22.2 | Now, you could say, well, look, the market went down today because the Fed hiked rates 50 basis points. |
| 1:29.3 | But of course, that is ridiculous. |
| 1:32.5 | Market is known for quite some time. |
| 1:34.4 | They were going to raise rates 50 basis points yesterday. |
| 1:38.4 | And in fact, for a good portion of the last quarter, which is up thousands of points in the market, |
| 1:45.8 | the expectation might have been that it was even going to be higher. And so what was actually new information yesterday? |
| 1:51.7 | Well, you could say, well, their dot pots were higher. And that's true. The expectations for |
| 1:57.8 | where the Fed is forecasting the Fed's end run to be moved across the term |
| 2:06.2 | spectrum, not 25 basis points, but I want to say more like 20 basis points. So you definitely got |
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