The DC Today - Thursday, December 14, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 14 December 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aigyM6
Well, and there you have it – coming out of a global pandemic where the world shut down and reopened and supply chain disruption and pent-up demand caused 9% inflation, the Fed raised rates 525bps in one year, inflation fell back down without rising unemployment, the economy still grew, and as of yesterday, the Dow closed at an all-time high. I really don’t think, in all humility, there was anyone out there (including yours truly) that would have predicted all that. Now, there is still more time to go before I think you can officially fly the soft landing flags, but we are getting close after yesterday’s Fed meeting and statements.
Adding to that narrative, we had some encouraging retail sales and jobless claims data today that had markets higher again. Also, the good ole three handle 10yr is back! We closed below 4% today down another 11 bps at 3.91% on 10’s for the day. Does all this sound too good to be true? I assure you there are still plenty of things in the world to worry about, but my sense at this point, with a dearth of large economic data coming out before the year-end, is that we will head into the holidays feeling a little more merrier than we did last year. =)
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.7 | Good evening. Welcome to D.C. today. It is Thursday, the 14th of December, and it's good to be with you here all of you today. We had another update in markets, although we had a head fake around 2 o'clock where markets kind of went back to Fair Value, but we closed up about 79 points on the Dow, which was nice yesterday. Obviously, big news was the Fed meeting and rates that stayed the same, but then conversation and a press conference |
| 0:39.3 | and statement following that really pointed to a cut and interest rates just by the Fed. |
| 0:44.6 | The Fed's own dot plots. |
| 0:45.7 | It was 75 basis points, and markets are priced in almost double that or so, 125 for next year. |
| 0:53.6 | So all that is good and fine. We had, the good old three handle |
| 0:58.6 | is back on the 10 year. So 10 year yields closed today at 391. They were down another 11 basis |
| 1:04.3 | points. So this vicious bond rally continues, which is really great to see. And I just think it's |
| 1:10.5 | interesting. I don't know that it's |
| 1:12.0 | official that you can really just declare a soft landing. I don't really know that you can ever |
| 1:16.8 | declare a soft landing at some point, you know, we'll have to deal with something. But technically, |
| 1:20.9 | as of right now, as of today, the Dow closed yesterday for the first time in two years at an |
| 1:27.1 | all-time high. |
| 1:28.4 | And then just by definition, since it was up again today, 79 points, it closed another all-time high as of today. |
| 1:35.1 | And so you had, you know, I don't know if anybody would have guessed that, you know, coming through a global pandemic, which we'd never seen, the world shut down, the world's reopening, supply chain issues, you know, pent up demand, |
| 1:47.6 | all these things caused this, you know, a lot of fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, |
| 1:52.4 | the whole thing caused all this inflation. |
| 1:55.2 | And we were up at 9%. |
| 1:56.8 | And so the Fed took interest rates from zero to up 525 basis points in one year without an |
| 2:03.3 | increase in unemployment with GDP still growing, with the Dow closing in an all-time high, |
| 2:09.5 | and with basically a round trip on where interest rates are going to go out of the Fed, |
| 2:14.5 | which is they're telegraphing that they're going to start reducing rates sometime next year. So it's a lot of good news, frankly. I don't want to get over my |
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