The DC Today - Monday, September 25, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 25 September 2023
⏱️ 17 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48qpYnM
Status of the shutdown – Speaker McCarthy is trying to split enough of the far “right” (I hate that term applied here) to avoid a shutdown. He’s currently attempting to package several appropriations bills together and send them to the House for a vote. The votes appear to be questionable as to whether or not they will be there, and this does not avoid a shutdown. These bills, IF passed in the House, have no chance of passing in the Senate. There appear to be enough votes in the House against any form of continuing resolution whatsoever that keeping the government open past this weekend is highly unlikely.
How it could play out: Option 1: The House passes a bill this week, the Senate amends it (to put it mildly), the House then rejects that, the government shuts down, a deal happens to end that, and Speaker McCarthy ends up removed from his post; OR, Option 2: No bill is passed out of the House, the Senate passes a bill, a deal is cut between House moderates and Democrats, and a shutdown is averted (with McCarthy likely removed shortly thereafter) I think Speaker McCarthy has moves to help avert a shutdown or, more likely, end one after it has started (see above). In both cases, I think he greatly improves his chance of being removed as Speaker.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.6 | Well, hello and welcome to the special Monday edition of DC today. Last week of September, last week of Q3. I am back in the Newport Beach office, |
| 0:23.8 | got back in the middle of the night, and we have hit the ground running today. I had a big |
| 0:28.0 | investment committee meeting this morning, big meeting with our whole advisory team, and a lot of |
| 0:33.6 | things happening. There was a very active week for us in the markets last week. |
| 0:39.9 | And now I have a lot to say to you here today. |
| 0:43.3 | I can't today capture everything on the podcast and the video that I wrote about. |
| 0:49.5 | Being in New York City over the weekend, having a long flight in the middle of the night, gives me |
| 0:55.8 | a lot of chance to read and write and make D.C. today longer. And so there's just kind of more |
| 1:01.2 | meat on the bone in the written D.C. today than I will have time to give you here on the podcast. |
| 1:08.9 | But by way of just market summary today, |
| 1:11.3 | futures had opened last night, 40 points to the upside and went a little higher into the evening. |
| 1:17.0 | Then this morning we're down about 90, a few hours before market opened. And actually the market did open down about 100 points. |
| 1:25.2 | It just sort of zigged and zagged throughout the day from there. And then it actually closed rather to the upside, but only 100 points. It just sort of zigged and zagged throughout the day from there, |
| 1:27.9 | and then it actually closed rather to the upside, but only 43 points. The Dow was down 1.7% last week. |
| 1:35.9 | I think that was about 600, 650 points in the week, and far worse, you know, with the S&P and the NASDAQ. |
| 1:43.8 | So you had a very difficult week in last week, |
| 1:48.2 | the third week of September. Markets are down in the month of September, down in the month of |
| 1:52.1 | August. They had been up nicely in the month of July. So total Q3 will see. You only got four |
| 1:57.3 | days left now, but it looks as if we'll finish this third quarter negative |
| 2:01.0 | in the various stock markets. |
| 2:04.9 | And most of that is really quite well correlated to bonds. |
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