The DC Today - Monday, November 20, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 20 November 2023
⏱️ 14 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47JhGpJ
Futures markets in the fed funds rate now show a 0% chance of any future rate hikes in 2023 or 2024, but then show mixed results around when rate cuts may begin (a 35% chance in March, a 65% chance by early May, an 88% chance by June). Those numbers will all change, but it is where the debate lies entering 2024. The Fed balance sheet sits at $7.8 trillion right now, down $1.2 trillion from its high, but still 88% above pre-COVID levels.
Will the Fed’s inevitable cutting of rates be a good thing for markets? I wonder what you think? Let me put it this way … is it even possible to answer that question without any further information? Hint: It is not. Two things have to be known to better answer that question. (1) Was the cut a surprise or well-telegraphed, and (b) What. Was. The. Reason. For. The. Cut. Beware of anyone assuming rate cuts are good without a discussion of that second question.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.5 | Well, hello and welcome to the special Monday edition of DC Today. It's even more special than normal this Monday because it'll be the last D.C. |
| 0:22.4 | today of the week. We won't have one tomorrow Tuesday. And then on Wednesday, we'll bring our weekly |
| 0:28.9 | Dividing Cafe for those who have been reading, listening, following for years. We always make |
| 0:34.8 | the Thanksgiving week, Dividendon Cafe, a sort of Thanksgiving edition. |
| 0:39.5 | And so we'll be doing that on Wednesday. And then, of course, no communications for the |
| 0:44.6 | Thanksgiving weekend. But as far as today goes, I'm recording from my house in the desert out here |
| 0:51.5 | in Southern California. Looking forward to a big family week for Thanksgiving, |
| 0:57.8 | and I hope many of you are as well. |
| 0:59.9 | It is my favorite holiday, |
| 1:01.5 | and I really enjoy not only being here and being with my family, |
| 1:08.9 | but I really love the Thanksgiving holiday and all it represents. |
| 1:12.4 | I'll talk more about that Wednesday. |
| 1:14.0 | For today, we had a Dow that was up a little over 200 points. |
| 1:18.6 | It opened kind of flat and just steadily went up throughout the day. |
| 1:22.3 | It did sell off a little bit right at the close, but still closed up a little over 200 points. |
| 1:29.0 | The NASDAQ was up a little over 1%. |
| 1:31.3 | The S&P was up about three quarters of a percent. |
| 1:35.8 | The best performing sector today was technology, which is generally what you'd see when |
| 1:41.6 | the NASDAQ is up the most. |
| 1:44.5 | Utilities were down and the consumer staples were basically flat. |
| 1:48.7 | So clearly the defensives were not in the strong suit today. |
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