4.8 • 4.7K Ratings
🗓️ 24 November 2022
⏱️ 42 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
How is it that Democrats were able to buck historical trends and avoid the kind of midterms massacre traditionally suffered by the party in power? And why did so many election forecasts miss the mark? Ryan Grim talks with Tom Bonier of Democratic data firm TargetSmart about what the media got wrong in 2022.
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| 0:00.0 | Alright, on today's episode of Deconstructed, we're going to try to figure out why it was |
| 0:07.0 | that Democrats were able to defy political gravity in the midterms, hold onto the Senate, |
| 0:11.6 | and nearly hold onto the House. |
| 0:13.5 | And to do that, we're going to be helped by Tom Bonyer, the head of the Democratic |
| 0:16.9 | Data From Target Smart, who, along with Simon Rosenberg, was the loudest voice shouting |
| 0:21.4 | that the media was getting it all wrong during their midterm coverage. |
| 0:24.8 | So, we joined the podcast last summer to lay his theory out, and he's back today to explain |
| 0:29.2 | what we can learn from what he was seeing and what the media was missing. |
| 0:32.7 | Tom, welcome back to Deconstructed. |
| 0:34.8 | It's great to be back. |
| 0:36.3 | And so, Tom, can you remind listeners what Target Smart is and why it's able to get such |
| 0:40.3 | extraordinary access to voting and other data? |
| 0:43.1 | Yeah, I'd love to. |
| 0:45.0 | At our core were a voter data company, so we collect data on every registered voter |
| 0:51.5 | around the country. |
| 0:52.5 | So, it's at its core voter registration lists. |
| 0:57.2 | And then what we do is we append other information. |
| 0:59.9 | So, voter models on partisanship or turnout likelihood, issue preferences, things like |
| 1:06.9 | that, and we work with Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations. |
| 1:12.4 | And so, the most important question to me is what did actually happen in this election? |
| 1:17.5 | You know, who came out to vote for Democrats and why? |
| 1:19.9 | Because the answer to that will shape what kind of agenda Democrats are going to pursue, |
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