This is the Daily Blast from the New Republic produced and presented by the DSR Network. I'm your host Greg Sergeant.

You've probably encountered the work of Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.

He regularly declares that we shouldn't freak out about polling averages showing Donald

Trump ahead, in part because the state of the Democratic Party is strong and it has

been winning a lot of elections lately. You've surely heard him say that on Twitter, on TV,

or on his Hopium Chronicles sub-stack. But we're going to focus on another less appreciated aspect of Rosenberg's analysis.

It's the idea that people who do politics for a living know, or should know,

that Trump's pile- up of negatives is probably

insurmountable. The thought here is that people who make political ads and run

campaigns know what can be done with negatives this bad and that it's only a matter

of time until that happens against Trump. This may explain why the Biden team is

quietly confident right now in the face of all the adverse polling.

So we invited Rosenberg on the show to dig into this theory of the case.

Welcome, Simon.

It's great to be here, Greg.

Simon, let's start here.

You got it right in 2022 by predicting that the much-Ballyhooed red wave wouldn't materialize.

Now you're making a similar case.

Can you recap that for us? Yeah, I mean I think the simple way to look at it is that in

2022 there if you wanted to see a red wave there was data showing the Republicans

we're going to win but there was also this other data showed that the election was going to be a close

to competitive election.

...