The crackdown on prediction market insider trading
Marketplace
Marketplace
4.6 • 8.5K Ratings
🗓️ 7 April 2026
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Laws prohibiting insider trading in commodities markets — which could be applied to prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — are more recent and untested than you might think. In this episode, we dig into two conflicting viewpoints: prediction markets as forecasting tools and prediction markets as regulated betting platforms. Plus: Durable goods orders continue a downward trend, the air travel industry weighs the role of small airports, and consumer inflation expectations rise.
Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.
Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | On the program, today we'll do some data. We'll talk oil and an observation or two about the state of play and this economy. |
| 0:11.4 | From American public media, this is Marketplace. |
| 0:25.3 | In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdahl. |
| 0:28.6 | It is Tuesday, today the seventh day of April. |
| 0:30.3 | Good as always, to have you along, everybody. |
| 0:39.4 | Our through line today, as it was yesterday and as it will be the rest of the week, unless and until events change our mind, is inflation. Price levels, as you know, were already elevated and war does tend to be inflationary. |
| 0:46.6 | About which, the war, that is, given the president's public pronouncements the past 18 or so |
| 0:52.8 | hours, an observation must be made. |
| 0:56.3 | Markets are not the economy, as you know, nor, as we're seeing, are they a guardrail. |
| 1:02.8 | Stocks basically flat today in the face of the president's astounding threats. |
| 1:08.0 | With that as prologue, Thursday, Friday this week, bring us two of our regularly scheduled |
| 1:12.9 | updates on inflation. |
| 1:14.3 | PCE, the Fed's favorite, and then the consumer price index. |
| 1:17.7 | That is hard data. |
| 1:19.1 | Today, though, something softer, the New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations for |
| 1:24.0 | the month of March. |
| 1:25.5 | For that first month of the war, consumers said they think inflation a year from now is going to be 3.4%. |
| 1:32.5 | That is up from 3% even they were thinking back in February. |
| 1:37.6 | Daniel Ackerman has more on that. |
| 1:39.3 | Consumers tend to base their inflation expectations for the future on prices they see today, specifically on |
| 1:45.8 | prices that they see often. Loretta Mester is with the Wharton School. Consumers are going to be |
| 1:52.5 | buying gasoline maybe once a week if they're using their car to commute. And that gas price |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Marketplace, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Marketplace and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.