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The coming preference cascade

August 4th, 2021

Introduction

The wave is still gathering and rising ominously, but it is not yet a breaker

It is not yet crashed into the beach, but if you're willing to look you can see it rising and you can see it headed this way

A preference cascade occurs when numerous individuals around the same time realize that they are not the only one who thinks the way they do

Before the moment arrives, there's an established orthodoxy which remains unquestioned in the official spaces

But as people are left alone with their own thoughts, they find themselves thinking in various heterodox ways

And then one day it happens

Numerous individuals discover all at once they discover that many others believe that the raining acceptableness is unacceptable

When that happens, there's a lurch, a revolution, an unexpected plot twist, and I believe that we are due for a momentous preference cascade

Some recent smaller examples would include the Arab Spring, the Brexit vote, and the 2016 election of Trump

You will notice that I'm describing a sociological phenomenon, one that can be filled with different doctrinal content

This is something that people do, whether left, right or in the middle

We might agree with the preference cascade or we might not, but it is still there

Authorities and the crisis of authority

In modern society, we have all kinds of authorities

We have scientific authorities, media authorities, government authorities, medical authorities, military authorities, religious authorities, and so on

And the nature of the coming preference cascade is that all these authorities are having to deal with challenges to their authority

By amateurs, interlopers, members of alien guilds, unaccredited critics, and so on

Now such challenges always exist, but a crisis of authority happens when these outside challengers get some traction

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