The Chopping Block: Biden's Resignation Odds, Market Predictions, and Chevron Ruling's Impact on Crypto - Ep. 669

Unchained

Laura Shin

News, Tech News, Business News

4.5 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 4 July 2024

⏱️ 67 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Robert Leshner, and Tarun Chitra explore the latest trends in the crypto world. In this episode, special guest Laura Shin is sitting in for Tom to discuss the impact of prediction markets on politics and crypto. They explore how prediction markets like Polymarket affect public perception during the presidential election, contrasting their reliability against traditional journalism. The conversation also touches on the implications of prediction markets on insider trading, market manipulation, and the role of expert information. Additionally, they discuss the Supreme Court's overturning of the Chevron doctrine and its potential impact on regulatory shifts in the crypto industry. The episode provides an insightful analysis into how prediction markets could revolutionize journalism and the evolving landscape of crypto regulation. Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Pandora, Castbox, Google Podcasts, TuneIn, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform. Show highlights 🔹 Discussion on the recent presidential debate and its implications for prediction markets and the crypto industry. 🔹 Overview of the prediction market phenomenon and its growing importance in political forecasting. 🔹 Examination of the recent Supreme Court ruling overturning Chevron Deference and its implications for crypto regulations. 🔹 Debate on whether the ruling will lead to more specific legislation from Congress or if it will hinder effective rulemaking. 🔹 Speculation on how different political figures might impact future crypto legislation and regulation. Hosts ⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Robert Leshner, CEO & Co-founder of Superstate ⭐️Laura Shin, journalist, author of ‘The Cryptopians,’ founder and CEO of Unchained Disclosures Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:50 Presidential Debate Chaos 04:25 Mainstream Media vs. Prediction Markets 16:48 Insiders in Prediction Markets 30:38 Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting 38:58 Market Manipulation 50:22 Supreme Court Ruling & Chevron Deference Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	market manipulation is more defined as making markets
0:03.1	converge to a price that does not reflect reality.
0:06.0	In this case, if you are Biden and you know you're going to resign,
0:08.5	you trading on the market actually gives information
0:12.1	as a positive externality to everybody else
0:14.2	that somebody who has inside information knows that this is going to happen and therefore
0:18.5	we should update accordingly.
0:19.8	And that is the point of prediction markets is not that people have fun trading.
0:23.4	It's that it elicits this information that everybody else can act upon.
0:26.8	Here's where I'll disagree.
0:27.8	So if Biden in his head knows that he's going to announce a surprise press conference Thursday and
0:34.8	just using this as a hypothetical.
0:38.6	And Thursday at...
0:40.0	Robert has incited for me, okay.
0:42.0	Yeah, not a dividend. It's a tale of two quan.
0:44.4	Now your losses are on someone else's balance. Generally speaking, air drops are kind of pointless anyways.
0:49.6	I mean to trading firms who were very involved.
0:52.8	I like that eat is the ultimate problem.
0:55.0	D5 protocols are the antidote to this problem.
0:58.0	Hello everybody, welcome to the chopping block.
1:01.0	Every couple weeks, the four of us get together and give the industry
1:03.0	insiders perspective on the crypto topics of the day. So quick intros, first we've
	...

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