‘The centre cannot hold’: John Curtice on the collapse of two-party politics

Politics Weekly UK

The Guardian

News, Politics

4.0 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 30 October 2025

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

No one likes being unpopular, so you could forgive both of the UK’s main political parties for wanting to look away when another damning poll dropped this week. Support for both parties has never been so low at the same time, the Green party is seeing record support and Reform UK continues to top the popularity contest. Does recent polling really suggest the end of the two-party hegemony? King of the pollsters John Curtice helps Politics Weekly UK read the runes. And, in the run-up to the budget next month, Keir Starmer has given the strongest indication yet that tax rises may be on the way, while immigration dominates headlines and the escaped sex offender whose case sparked protests at the Bell hotel in Epping is sent back to Ethiopia – with £500 in his back pocket. Pippa Crerar is joined by the Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff to discuss the government’s game of immigration whack-a-mole and the consequences Labour could face if it breaks its manifesto pledge not to raise key taxes.. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/politicspod

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is The Guardian.
0:11.3	Well, it feels like not a day has passed this week without a new immigration story,
0:15.9	and the Prime Minister's fight to get on the front foot goes on.
0:20.2	Well, I'm really angry that we've left with this complete mess by the last government.
0:24.1	They didn't process tens of thousands of asylum seekers.
0:27.8	And the last government opened up lots and lots of hotels.
0:31.1	I want to see them closed down as quickly as possible.
0:34.4	And with less than a month to go to the budget,
0:36.4	has Kirstara finally indicated that tax
0:38.6	rises are on their way. Labor promised not to increase income tax, not to increase national
0:44.9	insurance, and not to increase VAT. Does the Prime Minister still stand by his promises?
0:51.9	The budget is on the 26th of November and we will lay out our plans.
0:56.7	There's firefighting on all fronts, and with Labour's electoral fortunes plummeting,
1:00.6	can they recover?
1:02.1	I'm Pippa Carrera and you're listening to Politics Weekly UK for The Guardian.
1:15.8	Later on we'll be talking about how immigration continues to dominate this week's political discourse and the government's ongoing game of whack-a-mole over the issue.
1:19.6	But first, this week we've seen more polls underlining the unpopularity of Labour and the Conservatives,
1:24.8	with the Greens and the Lib Dems snapping at the heels and reform continuing to lead the way.
1:29.8	Is this the new political reality?
1:31.8	And does it really spell the end of the two-party system?
1:35.0	To talk about this, I'm now joined by the King of the Polsters, Professor Sir John Curtis.
1:39.7	Now, John, you once told The Guardian that your interest in electoral behaviour began
	...

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