The 'Blind Spot' of All Asset Managers

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

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4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 30 January 2023

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week, one of Dan's favorite guests returns for his fourth Stansberry Investor Hour appearance... Cullen Roche is the founder of portfolio-management firms Orcam Financial and Discipline Funds. He is also the author of two of the most widely circulated research papers in finance and a highly rated book named after his popular financial blog, Pragmatic Capitalism.

But first, Dan and Corey examine the biggest news events of the past week. And some have gotten a little too close for comfort to the extreme scenarios in the "Top 10 Potential Surprises for 2023" episode.

As for our guest's economic outlook, Cullen discusses why disinflation could be this year's theme... why it's too early to be picking bottoms in the "huge, slow-moving beast" of housing... and why he thinks the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates a bit more before adopting a wait-and-see approach...

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to the Stansbury Investor Hour. I'm your host, Dan Ferris. I'm also the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research. And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. Today, Dan talks with Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds. For today's rant, did two of our top 10
0:22.4	surprises for 2023 already kind of sort of happen? And remember, you can email us at
0:28.1	Feedback at InvestorHour.com and tell us what's on your mind. That and more right now on the
0:33.4	Stansberry Investor Hour.
0:45.5	So did two of our top 10 surprises already kind of sort of happen a little bit, maybe?
0:46.4	I think they did.
0:47.1	All right.
0:51.5	So the first one, I mean, this one didn't happen, obviously.
0:58.5	But it gave me some insight into how it might happen. And we're talking about what happened Tuesday morning on the New York Stock Exchange. 84 stocks were halted
1:04.1	for volatility just in the first several minutes of trading. And the whole thing was over pretty
1:08.8	quick. But what I found amusing about it was that in the end,
1:12.6	after investigating, the NYSE said it was a manual error that caused a problem with their
1:19.8	disastery recovery configuration. So a manual error. My first image in my head was somebody
1:27.3	spilling coffee on a laptop. I swear,
1:29.5	I just, that was manual error. Is that like somebody with really fat fingers, they hit the wrong
1:35.0	keys? I mean, what is that? That covers a lot. Yeah, that that leaves a lot open for interpretation
1:40.8	for sure. Yeah, it's and they're still, you know, and they said it's a manual error with
1:46.9	deconfiguration in their disaster recovery program, which, you know, it seems like some
1:54.1	sort of technical error, right?
1:55.7	Yeah.
1:56.7	But there's still, you know, this is why we brought up these sorts of possibilities in the
2:01.4	potential surprises episode.
	...

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