meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Patrick Boyle On Finance

The Bizarre World of Prediction Markets

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle

Business, Investing

4.9308 Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2026

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a crypto betting site, and why quantitative trading firms are now paying traders $200,000 a year to build algorithms that systematically take money from retail bettors. We also look at the political connections behind these platforms, the academic research on the social cost of making it very easy to gamble from your phone, and why — after all of this — you still can't trade futures on onions.

Patrick's Books:

Statistics For The Trading Floor: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://amzn.to/3eerLA0⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Derivatives For The Trading Floor: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Corporate Finance: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠


Ways To Support The Channel:

Patreon: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Busy routines can make it hard to focus on your health goals, but MedExpress offers a simple way to explore weight management treatment online.

0:08.0

Complete our short eligibility consultation with no need for face-to-face appointments or travel.

0:13.0

If eligible, treatment is delivered discreetly, with UK registered clinicians offering support along the way.

0:19.1

VisitMedexpress.co.com.uk slash podcast to get started today.

0:23.1

It's traditionally been understood that financial markets exist to allocate capital to its most

0:28.6

productive uses. Recently, however, the definition of a productive use has been expanded to include

0:35.5

betting on whether a reggaeton artist will wear a dress to a

0:39.8

football match. In the past, if you had wanted to place a bet on Bad Bunny's wardrobe choices,

0:45.9

or perhaps the precise timing of an Iranian missile strike, you had to find a man who

0:51.5

conducted his business behind a local pub.

0:55.2

Today the process is a bit smoother.

0:58.0

Through a rather impressive piece of legal rebranding, what the authorities used to call gambling

1:04.3

is now referred to as trading event contracts.

1:07.8

This means that when you inevitably lose your money on these platforms, you're no longer

1:12.4

a degenerate gambler.

1:14.4

You're a retail liquidity provider contributing to a truth machine, which sounds much more

1:20.2

respectable.

1:21.2

I wouldn't necessarily put it on your CV though.

1:24.9

Reading up on prediction markets is somewhat exhausting. Unfortunately, we seem to be determined

1:31.0

to financialise every single aspect of human existence. It used to be that if you wanted to know,

1:37.0

if it might rain tomorrow, you'd just look out the window. But now it seems you have to check

1:42.2

the bid-ask spread on a precipitation swap.

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Patrick Boyle, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Patrick Boyle and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.