The Bitcoin Bears Are Back In Town

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Business, Investing

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 18 November 2025

⏱️ 12 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The crypto market is facing a renewed period of intense fear as Bitcoin turned red on the year, briefly dropping below $93,000 amid a 10% weekly drawdown and the Fear & Greed Index hitting extreme lows. NLW explores whether this 25% correction marks the start of a traditional bear market or is simply Bitcoin transitioning into a more institutional asset with a new, potentially less cyclical return profile, noting the strange dissonance where positive structural news—like the Czech Central Bank acquiring BTC and the Harvard Endowment significantly increasing its position—fails to lift the price. The episode also analyzes the immediate impact of false Michael Saylor selling rumors and the macro headwinds from the Treasury General Account drawing liquidity, ultimately asking if investors should take a break from the market until the new year. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.3	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:18.4	What's going on, guys? It is Monday, November 17th, and the Bears are back in town.
0:23.7	Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying The Breakdown, please go subscribe to it,
0:27.0	give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,
0:30.4	come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly.
0:34.1	All right, friends, well, even as we start to ring in the holiday season, it is getting
0:40.6	bleak over here.
0:42.8	Bitcoin, in fact, has turned red on the year as new lows are tested.
0:47.6	Bitcoin saw another huge weekly drawdown of 10%, briefly dropping below 93,000 over the weekend.
0:52.9	Bitcoin started the year at 93,500, so for an hour
0:56.4	or so on Sunday, Bitcoin was negative year-to-date. Price has come up just an ever little bit after
1:02.0	that, but we are now headed towards bare market territory. Bitcoin is around 25% off the highs,
1:07.2	which is enough to raise serious questions about whether this is the end of the cycle.
1:10.9	Analyst Nick Puckrin wrote,
1:12.4	This dip has been the smallest of this cycle, 25% versus 31% and 32%, but it feels so, so much
1:18.6	worse.
1:19.4	Sentiment is cooked.
1:21.3	As of Saturday, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was in Extreme Fear with a nine-month
1:25.3	low score of just 10.
1:27.4	DRXL, a research manager at Masari wrote, In my eight years in crypto, I've never seen such dissonance between the headlines and the sentiment. Everything we once dreamed of is happening, and yet it somehow feels over. And that has been one of the most troubling signs over the past few weeks. The positive headlines continue to roll out, but none of them move the price. Bloomberg's Eric Balcunis asked what people are actually expecting, asking, did any Bitcoiners complain last year when Bitcoin was up 122%? Which was 5x the S&P or gold? Was anyone like, wait, Bitcoin's historical performance relative to risk assets says it shouldn't be this high. This is bad. No, you'll love the
2:01.2	extra excess, double dip, and so this year you get nothing. Still averages out to plus 50%. Lucky if you ask
	...

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