The Biggest Warning Sign of Imminent Economic Hardship
Peak Prosperity
Chris Martenson
4.7 • 591 Ratings
🗓️ 14 July 2023
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
What’s the biggest sign that economic trouble is on the way? That’s easy – the disappearance of low-cost energy. In part I (public) we cover the German experience with their self-inflicted wounds of depriving themselves of reliable, low-cost energy.
It’s predictably bad.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello everyone, Dr. Chris Martinson here back with you. And as you know, I like to talk about a lot of different subjects and connect them. That's what I am. I'm a teacher. I'm an educator. I'm a dot connector. And hopefully I leave you with insights that you can use to become more resilient and secure a better future for yourself. So today I want to talk to you about, again, where we're going economically, |
| 0:23.2 | because I believe that the economy is going to harm far more people than COVID, |
| 0:28.0 | even our COVID responses, as draconian and as awful as they were. |
| 0:32.7 | The economic decline that's coming is going to hurt a lot more people. |
| 0:36.0 | And if forewarned, it's forearmed, and if you you can see what's coming then you have a chance to do something about it |
| 0:41.0 | proactively so let's go there right now uh-oh there goes the economy here's my thesis let's talk |
| 0:47.8 | about it first up i'm going to repeat this energy is the economy particularly oil You can see here on this chart that we have GDP on the |
| 0:58.9 | y-axis heading up and across the X is oil consumption. This is across many years. It starts in |
| 1:04.4 | 1975 on the left. This data goes through 2021, courtesy of the awesome data found at the BP statistical review. |
| 1:13.1 | I hope they keep putting that out because it's an amazing piece of data for us to work with. |
| 1:17.7 | And what we see here is a straight line relationship, that if you're going to have more economy, |
| 1:23.2 | you're going to be consuming more oil. This is just in thousands of barrels. This isn't price of oil. |
| 1:28.6 | It has nothing to do with it. It's that if you're going to have more economy, you are going to be |
| 1:33.0 | burning more oil. Another way to look at this is this is looking at electricity per capita. |
| 1:39.4 | How many people you have in your country, your population, divided by, on the x-axis over there, your GDP, |
| 1:45.8 | again, per capita. What we can see here is very clear that, look at this, no such thing |
| 1:51.0 | as a low-energy-rich country. So, richer countries would be arrayed along the x-axis, |
| 1:58.0 | so you can see that curve as you get up there, all those blue dots those would be considered wealthy or rich countries and down there in the yellow orangish dots |
| 2:05.6 | Not so rich not so poor countries and so on a per capita basis those same countries that are poor are |
| 2:11.6 | Consuming less electricity or providing less electricity per capita and they have a lower GDP per capita. |
| 2:19.3 | So the less energy you're using, the less prosperous you are. |
| 2:25.3 | It's a very simple relationship, so we ought to be keeping our eyes on energy, energy, energy. |
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