Welcome podcast friends we have a fantastic episode for you today.

Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of the

best investment writing volume three in audio format right here on the

podcast. Listeners loved it so we're running it back again this year,

for the best investment writing volume four.

You'll hear from some of the most respected money managers

and investment researchers from all over the planet.

Hi, this is Martin Turner.

I'm a portfolio manager and research analyst at Grantham Mayo Van Otovna, otherwise known as

a GMO.

GMO is an investment management firm located in Boston.

I'm going to read a paper entitled, Is the U.S. stock market bubble bursting?

A new model suggests yes. But before I get started, I'd like to provide a little context.

This paper deals with a quantitative model of stock market bubbles. I wrote the paper in early 2019. At that time, valuations were high, but because

there was not a great deal of euphoria in the markets.

Jeremy Grantham, the G and GMO,

and a practitioner who has spent much of his career

studying bubbles of all varieties,

including stock market bubbles, did not think that the U.S. stock market was in a bubble.

However, over the past few months, based on recent price action and stories of euphoria, Jeremy now does believe that the US stock market is a bubble.

So one way to view this paper that I'm going to read to you is that in typical GMO fashion it was early. So now imagine yourself

reading this paper in early 2019 and let's get started. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 fell almost 14%. This large

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