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The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Gary Antonacci – Extended Backtest of Global Equities Momentum

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Management, Investing, Business

4.8978 Ratings

🗓️ 21 October 2019

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast, and listeners loved it. This year, we’re bringing you the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3 in podcast format. You’ll hear from some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers all over the world. Enough from me, let’s let Gary take over this special episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome podcast listeners. We have a fantastic episode for you today.

0:11.4

Last year when we published the Best Investment Writing

0:14.5

Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their

0:19.1

chapter to be released as a segment of the podcast and listeners loved it. This year we're bringing you

0:25.3

the entire volume of the best investment writing volume 3 in podcast format.

0:31.1

You'll hear from some of the most respected money managers and

0:34.0

investment researchers all over the world. Enough for me, let's get to our guests

0:38.8

and let them take over this special episode.

0:41.4

Hi, this is Gary Antonasey.

0:45.0

I'm author of the book Dual Momentum Investing

0:48.0

and the blog Dual Momentum.net.

0:51.0

I'm going to read a piece called Extended Back Test of Global Equity's Momentum.

0:57.0

In 2013, I created my Global Equityities momentum gem model.

1:05.0

It holds US or non US stock indices when stocks are strong

1:10.0

and uses bonds as a safe harbor when stocks are weak.

1:14.0

When my book dual momentum investing was published in 2014,

1:19.0

I had Barclays Bond Index data back to 1973. Since one year of data is needed to

1:26.0

initialize the gem model, results went from 1974 through 2013. In 2015 I got access to Ibbitson Intermediate Government Bond Data.

1:39.4

This allowed me to extend Jem back to 1970. The extra bond data lets us see how Jam performed during the 1973-74

1:48.2

bare market. Jem was up 20% those two years, while the S&P 500 index was down over 40%.

1:57.2

This was a short but impressive out-of- sample validation of my dual momentum approach. I thought 1971 was as far back as I could

2:08.4

ever take Jem because MSCI non-. stock index data only went back to 1970.

...

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