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Armstrong & Getty On Demand

The A&G Friday Replay Hour Three

Armstrong & Getty On Demand

iHeartPodcasts

Daily News, News, Society & Culture

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 30 July 2021

⏱️ 37 minutes

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Transcript

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0:30.0

I'm strong and getting it.

0:36.9

So I was reading about this the other day and I thought you might find it interesting.

0:40.1

Everybody's predicting that China will pass the US's the biggest economy on Earth by 2030

0:44.2

or whatever.

0:45.2

Different people throw out different numbers.

0:47.1

But this piece written by who's this written by is really good.

0:50.4

I'll tell you later.

0:51.4

But the nightmare scenario for she is that China could follow the same trajectory as Japan.

0:56.2

Also touted as a potential challenger to the US before it crashed three decades ago.

1:00.7

Combination of reform, failure, international isolation, financial crisis could halt China

1:05.2

before it reaches the top.

1:08.1

It's also worth mentioning that China's official GDP data is almost certainly exaggerated.

1:14.5

And so they have a bigger gap than it appears.

1:17.2

And then they go into some technical stuff about the three factors that determine an

1:20.8

economy's growth rate.

1:27.8

That's a workforce, capital stock, everything from factories to transport infrastructure to communications

1:28.7

networks.

1:29.7

And finally, there's productivity or how effectively those first two can be combined.

1:34.2

And in each of those areas, China faces an uncertain future at best like their workforce.

1:39.6

They have a demographic nightmare going on thanks to their long time one child policy.

1:46.1

Nobody's having kids.

1:48.0

And if fertility stays low, it's projected to shrink by more than 260 million people in

...

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