The $3T Problem No One in Real Estate is Paying Attention To

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 26 March 2026

⏱️ 40 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

A $3 trillion market is beginning to crack. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has sounded off, saying there are “cockroaches” in the system. Investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the market, and real estate could be affected in a massive way. This is the private credit crisis explained. When big investors go to buy or build, they don’t always take money from a bank; instead, they get loans from the private credit market—lenders who operate outside of the traditional lending apparatus. But over the past four years, commercial real estate has seen values tank, income drop, and demand shrink for everything from office to multifamily and more. And the people who lend their money to private credit are starting to get nervous. Billions of dollars have already been pulled out of the market, with many investors going on “bank run” style withdrawal sprees. But, this isn’t only a commercial real estate problem—residential real estate could be affected if enough money leaves the systems. So what happens next? Will real estate prices fall even further as a result? Are we on the brink of a credit crisis mirroring the 2008 subprime bubble? We’re breaking it all down in this episode. In This Episode We Cover Private credit explained: who’s lending the money and what is being leveraged “Cracks” begin to form, and why investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the system Riskier commercial real estate debt that could trigger a “debt spiral” of serious proportions Why residential real estate is not completely safe if commercial real estate starts to fall further The one thing worrying experts the most about this hidden credit crisis And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On the Market 410 - The First Domino? Investors Pull Billions as Real Estate Bank Runs Return Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing" Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-411 . Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	You've probably heard how the subprime mortgage crisis crashed the housing market in 2008.
0:05.6	Luckily, that's not happening in 2026.
0:08.6	But there is a $3 trillion market sitting in the shadows of the financial system
0:14.7	that almost no one in the real estate investing world is talking about, and it is starting to crack.
0:22.5	And if it does, it could cause massive damage to the economy and the housing market. So today, we're diving into what's known as
0:28.5	the private credit market. And we're going to break this all down. We're going to talk about what
0:33.3	private credit is, where the money comes from, who's at risk, and what it actually means
0:38.3	for both commercial and residential real estate. Stick around for this one because this
0:43.4	stuff really matters.
0:49.5	Hey, everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I'm Dave Meyer. And today we're talking about something that has been in the news more and more recently.
0:58.0	It's called Private Credit and it's a part of the financial system that we don't really talk about that much here on On the Market.
1:05.5	And frankly, it's not even talked about that much in the mainstream financial news.
1:11.7	But recently, if you've been paying attention, you probably noticed that there are some cracks
1:16.6	starting to show in this part of the market.
1:19.7	We've had big-name CEOs like Jamie Diamond saying that there might be some cockroaches
1:25.5	in this part of the financial system.
1:28.5	And when someone,
1:32.8	as big as Jamie Diamond, the CEO of Chase starts to say something like that, we should probably all start to pay attention. Because even though private credit is not mainstream, it is intricately
1:40.7	woven into the financial system. And if problems start to emerge in private credit
1:46.7	markets, it can spread. It can spread not just to other banks or to the stock market, but directly
1:54.2	to commercial real estate and actually to residential real estate as well. And I am not trying
2:00.7	to be a fearmonger, but the more and more I dig into this private credit, I am not trying to be a fearmonger, but the more
	...

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