The 2026 Recession Is Here

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Business, Education, Investing

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2026

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The 2026 recession is here. You feel it. I feel it. GDP is growing, but the cost of living is rising, affordability is at a multi-decade low, and consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in 70 years. The stock market is ripping, but Americans are struggling daily. Economists will tell you it’s not a recession (at least not yet), but according to my recession indicator…we’re there. Last November, I created a new recession indicator. It wasn’t tied to GDP, asset values, or sentiment. It was tied to the average American struggling to get by. As of last week, this recession indicator threw up a strong yellow flag, signaling that we’ve reached a turning point—and the direction we’re going isn’t giving us much hope. This will affect the housing market and rent prices for real estate investors. I give my full forecast on how this could affect the market, but also share exactly what I’m doing right now to put myself in the best position to weather the storm and, hopefully, pick up discounted deals as they come along. Well-situated investors can survive this, but those that are already running their portfolios with little wiggle room might be in for a big surprise. In This Episode We Cover The recession indicator that got triggered just last week (and what it means for the economy) My new definition of “recession” and why we must rethink what a “recession” even is How this new recession could hurt the housing market and investors What I’m doing right now to prepare for the recession and put my portfolio in a strong position A concerning data point about the affordability of average Americans (this includes renters) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-427. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	I created a new, better way of tracking recessions in the United States.
0:05.2	I told you exactly what would trigger that recession.
0:08.3	And now, as of last week, that recession is here.
0:12.1	Back in November, I was growing frustrated with the traditional definitions,
0:16.5	or really lack of definitions, about what a recession actually is.
0:21.5	Because to me, the normal way of using GDP gross domestic product,
0:26.5	it doesn't really reflect the economic experiences of ordinary Americans,
0:32.4	which, at least to me, is what actually matters.
0:35.1	So I did some research and actually came up with a new definition
0:40.6	of recession. And as of last week, by my definition, the U.S. economy flipped from growing to recession.
0:48.1	Yes, it is true. Unemployment is still low. GDP is still growing. And many of the headlines say that we're fine. But I stand
0:56.1	by my indicator, and I think that we've just crossed an important threshold that could change
1:01.2	expectations and outcomes in the economy and in the housing market for months or years to come.
1:07.2	So today on the show, we're going to discuss what exactly is this Main Street recession that I've defined?
1:13.8	How does it differ from official definitions, where we stand in these indicators today, and what all this means for you and your finances?
1:23.2	This is on the market. Let's get to it.
1:30.3	Hey, everyone, welcome to On the Market. I'm Dave Meyer. I'm the chief investment officer at
1:35.0	Bigger Pockets. I'm also an economic and housing analyst and a real estate investor myself.
1:40.6	Today we've got a great and I think really important show for all of you, so we're going to get right to it.
1:46.5	If you listen to this show, you probably know this, but I do not like the definition of recession in the United States.
1:53.2	This is a big gripe of mine. I do not make this any secret. I think the word has basically become
1:59.9	meaningless in our society for two major reasons.
	...

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