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CONFLICTED

The 2026 Middle East Forecast

CONFLICTED

Message Heard

Religion & Spirituality, History

4.71.5K Ratings

🗓️ 16 December 2025

⏱️ 49 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026? In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come. In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss: How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon The strategic importance of the Gulf states Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8  Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/  Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello, dear listeners.

0:02.6

And from me, hello, dear listeners.

0:05.4

Yeah, Aiman, I'm always the one saying hello.

0:07.8

Why am I the one always saying hello?

0:10.0

Ah, well, you know, like, basically.

0:11.8

I give you the benefit of the seniority in age.

0:14.7

Hey, you're older than me, buddy.

0:17.2

I know you can't tell because of my long beard.

0:21.1

Today, dear listeners, we're doing something different.

0:24.0

Instead of peering deep into the past or drilling down into the chaos of the present,

0:29.4

we're turning our attention to the future, specifically the year 26.

0:35.7

2026, goodness gracious, Aiman, how'd 2026 roll around so fast?

0:42.3

Do you know what that means?

0:44.3

That before long, it'll have been 25 years since 9-11.

0:50.3

25 years since the event that set our whole era into motion. Can you believe it?

0:56.8

Well, ironically, just a few days ago, I met my brother. He's six year older than me, so

1:02.2

roughly about 53. So we sat down and we were reminiscing about things. Oh, do you remember that

1:07.8

thing we did? Do you remember that place? Like, you know, we used to go and buy things from, oh, yeah, that was 40 years ago.

1:14.0

The fact that we were talking about things that happened 40 years ago when we are, like, remembering it.

1:19.0

Like, I mean, it's just set in motion a train of depression.

1:24.9

It also means, Amon, that you have been deep inside the world of geopolitical analysis and intrigue for like 30 years now.

1:34.3

Three decades of watching your region and the wider world twist, turn, burn, rebuild, collapse, then repeat.

...

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