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Andy & Ari On3

Tennessee-Florida | Penn State-Illinois | South Carolina-Georgia | Week 3 picks against the spread!

Andy & Ari On3

On3 Media, Inc.

Sports

4.0552 Ratings

🗓️ 14 September 2023

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tennessee-Florida | Penn State-Illinois | South Carolina-Georgia | Week 3 picks against the spread! Today’s show and all the lines discussed are brought to you by Fanduel, America’s No. 1 sportsbook! Visit Fanduel.com/Staples and use the promo code Staples. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. All customers can bet $5 and get $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV. Today’s show is brought to you by Birddogs. Live your most efficient life with a pair of shirts or pants from Birddogs. Visit birddogs.com/staples and use the promo code STAPLES to receive a free Hydro Flask-style bottle with your order.  Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube - don't forget to subscribe! https://youtube.com/live/ZARPhSHyQDc We’ve gone with our guts for the first two weeks, but now it’s time to crunch the numbers. Tonight’s guest is Parker Fleming (@StatsOWar), one of the best analytics guys covering college football. Parker hosts a podcast called Never Punt, Never Parlay, and he’ll help us find value when the numbers and the lines don’t exactly match. (0:00-6:51) Here are this week’s games… LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5) Total: 54.5 (6:52-12:38) Penn State at Illinois (+14.5) Total: 48.5 (12:39-16:14) TCU at Houston (+7.5) Total: 63.5 (16:15-21:50) Minnesota at North Carolina (-7.5) Total: 49.5 (51:56-55:24) Tennessee at Florida (+6.5) Total: 58.5 (23:17-32:58) Pittsburgh at West Virginia (+1.5) Total: 50.5 (32:59-36:35) Colorado State at Colorado (-22.5) Total: 59.5 (36:36-40:17) Kansas State at Missouri (+4.5) Total: 48.5 (40:18-43:42) Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (-19.5) Total: 64.5 (43:43-46:08) Alabama at USF (+31.5) Total: 60.5 (46:09-48:20) South Carolina at Georgia (-27.5) Total: 54.5 (48:21-51:55) Minnesota at North Carolina (-7.5) Total: 49.5 (51:56-55:24) Washington at Michigan State (+16.5) Total: 57.5 (55:25-58:33) Western Michigan-Iowa Total: 42.5 (58:33-01:01:03) National Disclaimer: Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York. NFL Sunday Ticket Offer ends 9/18/23. No refunds. Terms and embargoes apply. $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket, not YouTube TV. YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment. Commercial Use Excluded.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Andy Staples on three.

0:05.2

It's time to make some picks.

0:06.7

And again, I'm going to start tonight's show with the same disclaimer I started last night's show with.

0:11.8

I do not want to hear anybody complaining about the slate this weekend.

0:16.6

Because one, cherish every college football weekend.

0:20.5

But two, when we see weekends like this where it doesn't look like there's a lot of ranked on ranked matchups,

0:25.5

where there's a lot of big home underdogs and conference games, that's when the weird stuff happens.

0:31.4

So something will happen this Saturday that makes us go, oh my God, I can't.

0:36.6

Who could have predicted it? Well,

0:39.3

we're going to bring on a guy who probably could predict it. Parker Fleming is a data scientist.

0:44.6

He works at Sumer Sports, but also on the side does all this incredible college football stuff.

0:51.1

CFB graphs. You can go there and look at his, his advanced metric previews.

0:57.4

He's, stats award is his handle on Twitter. And it's just, Parker, do you ever sleep?

1:05.4

Yeah, yeah, plenty, plenty. I, you know, automated these things while I was procrastinating in

1:10.1

grad school. And so

1:11.0

a lot of this stuff is in the background and I spent a lot of time that I should have been working on my dissertation working on this. But yeah, man, I'm, I'm very fortunate to get to play around with college football data and very fortunate that I've built up a skill set where I can think, hey, I wonder about this weird idea. Let me go look it up and put a graph out about it. Well, one thing I love about, we're doing a different guest picker every week.

1:30.5

So we've really run the game. I can think, hey, I wonder about this weird idea. Let me go look it up and put a graph out of it.

1:46.4

Well, one thing I love about, we're doing a different guest picker every week. So we've really run the gamut so far. So our first week was Ari Waserman, who is the type of gambler that if he sees two snails on the ground, he will put action on which one will hit the next line in the sidewalk first. And so all guts, you know, just I'm feeling it now. That's what I'm doing. And then last week, Jacob Hester, former fullback, sees the world

1:51.9

through those eyes, you know, and now we've got someone who crunches the data. And we're going to

1:58.1

talk about success rate. We're going to talk about EPA, that sort of thing that,

2:03.7

this is what teams are also using

2:05.6

and using them to figure out how best to deploy their talent

...

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