“Technical” Recession is Imminent: Is the Housing Market Safe? w/J Scott

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Business, Education

4.8 • 820 Ratings

🗓️ 28 April 2025

⏱️ 47 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

What the heck is happening with the US economy? Stocks are down, now they’re up, mortgage rates are dropping—wait, scratch that—they’re back up again, the Fed could have a new chair, and if they cut rates, interest rates could…rise? A “technical” recession is on the way, but will it have the same effects as the last one? We need some backup to explain the state of the US economy, and J Scott is here to do just that. J wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing and is known as one of the most economically aware real estate investors. Today, we’re diving into it all: mortgage rates, recession chances, inflation rates, tariffs, trade wars, future home price predictions, and what J plans to do with his money. Home prices are already unstable, but could a recession, combined with high inventory and low demand, push us over the edge? This may not be another 2008, for many reasons, but the psychological effect of a recession can be severe—especially on homebuyers and sellers. We’re giving you J’s complete overview of the economy today. In This Episode We Cover Whether or not home prices are at risk as we enter a “technical” recession J’s investment plan for 2025 and the assets he’s most bullish on The massive undersupply problem that’s propping up the housing market Inflation forecasts and the unexpected tariff side effects that could cost Americans Why “just buy American” won’t stop you from feeling inflation How the Fed cutting rates could…raise rates? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 315 - Stagflation Risk Rising Fast as US Economy Falls Out of Balance J's BiggerPockets Profile Grab J’s Book, “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing” Jump to topic: (0:00) Intro(2:04) Home Prices (Probably) Won’t Crash(8:24) Still SO Undersupplied(9:56) The “Technical” Recession Coming(14:45) GDP Will Drop(18:26) Inflation Forecast(22:58) Just Buy American Goods?(28:15) New Fed Chair?(34:23) J’s Investment Plan Check out more resources from this show on ⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠ and ⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-316 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠[email protected]⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	The economy, as you all know, is sending a lot of mixed signals.
0:04.7	Every day, we hear things like stocks are rising and then they're sinking.
0:08.7	Mortgage rates, they're volatile.
0:10.6	We're hearing the word recession a lot.
0:13.1	What does this all mean for real estate investors?
0:15.7	I'm trying to make sense of it, but I could use some backup.
0:19.3	So today I am bringing on my friend,
0:22.6	fellow investor, and co-author Jay Scott, to help cut through the noise. We're going to talk
0:28.2	about what's actually worth paying attention to and everything you need to make sense of a
0:32.8	market filled with uncertainty. Hey, everyone. I'm Dave Meyer. Welcome to On the Market.
0:38.1	Let's get into it.
0:44.1	Jay, Scott, welcome back to the show.
0:46.4	Thanks for being here.
0:47.4	I appreciate it.
0:48.0	Thanks for having me, Dave.
0:48.9	I was joking with our producer, Chris, that I wanted this show to be called What the
0:53.1	Hell is going on.
0:54.9	And so that is what I want to know from you. What is going on, Jay? At least from your perspective,
1:00.9	like what are the big themes you're following, at least right now? I thought you were going to
1:05.9	tell me. That's why I came. I'll give you my opinion, but I sure as hell don't know. I think nobody knows right now.
1:13.1	There's so much going on politically, economically, geopolitically that I think there's a lot of
1:19.8	uncertainty. In fact, if I had to pick a word that kind of sums up what's going on these days,
	...

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