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On The Tape

Tech Wreck Scar Tissue & AI Hype with Steve Milunovich

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 30 April 2025

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Dan Nathan is joined by seasoned analyst Steve Milunovich. Steve, who has a rich history as a sell-side analyst at Merrill Lynch and other institutions, discusses the various technological waves spanning from the centralized computing era of mainframes to the current generative AI boom. They dive deep into the historical context of tech market cycles, including the dot-com bubble and the rise of mobile, social, and cloud computing. Steve shares his insights on the role of major tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Nvidia in these cycles and the challenges of identifying future market leaders. The episode also explores frameworks for investing in individual companies, highlighting key differentiation strategies and the evolving nature of tech ecosystems. Finally, Dan and Steve reflect on the entrepreneurial legacies of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk. References The Carlota Perez Framework (AVC) AI’s $600B Question (Sequoia) Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcript

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0:00.0

To be invested with Betterment is to believe in better.

0:02.9

Whether it's saving for today or building wealth for tomorrow, they help people and small

0:07.3

businesses put their money to work.

0:09.1

They automate to make savings simpler.

0:11.2

They optimize to make investing smarter.

0:13.4

They build innovative technology backed by financial experts for anyone who's ever said,

0:18.2

I think I can do better.

0:19.8

So be invested in yourself. Be invested in your business, be invested in better with betterment.

0:24.7

Get started at betterment.com.

0:28.7

Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast.

0:30.9

I'm Dan Neath, and I'm joined by a very good friend.

0:33.5

An old friend of mine named Steve Milanovic.

0:35.4

Steve was a longtime sell-side analyst at Merrill Lynch, all throughout the 90s covering hardware, some of the hottest names in the markets in the lead up to the dot-com bubble, if you will.

0:48.3

He spent years as a strategist, as an investor, and now he is a consulting analyst at Tech Advisor LLC.

0:56.8

Steve, welcome to the pod.

0:58.7

Dan, thanks so much for having me.

0:59.9

It's great to see you again.

1:00.8

Yeah, so this is really important to me because there's very few folks that I kind of grew up in

1:05.4

the markets with who I really looked up to and I read their work every day who are still in

1:09.9

the markets.

1:10.7

And I would place you

1:11.9

as one of them. I know that you retired from Wolf Research after spending decades at Merrill Lynch.

...

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