Taxes, Trade and More in a Trump Presidency

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Julia McGonagle

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 17 November 2016

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

As President-elect Donald Trump makes the transition from the campaign trail to the White House, investors will be watching carefully to determine the economic issues at the top of his agenda. Alec Phillips, Goldman Sachs Research's political economist in Washington, discusses where Trump can act on his own without Congress, why corporate tax changes are more likely than personal tax cuts in 2017, and how Trump may reshape the leadership of the Federal Reserve. This podcast was recorded on November 15, 2016. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is
0:03.0	Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, where we discuss developments currently shaping markets,
0:08.0	industries in the global economy.
0:09.0	I'm Jake Stewart, global head of corporate communications here at the firm.
0:13.0	The United States has elected Donald Trump to be its next president.
0:16.0	As he begins his transition to Washington, it's up to folks like my guest here today, Alec Phillips,
0:21.0	to sort out his likely policy agenda and determine what a Trump administration
0:26.4	might mean for the U.S. in the world.
0:27.7	Alec is a political economist focused on the United States for Goldman Sachs research. Welcome, Alec.
0:33.4	Thanks. So a lot of uncertainty around what a Trump administration will or won't do
0:40.0	given the tenor of the campaign and the like, but let's start with what it can and can't do on its own.
0:45.0	Where could we see President Trump act unilaterally and what policy areas from his agenda would require congressional support and particularly
0:55.6	the support of Democrats in the minority party.
0:57.8	Right, so there are actually a number of things that he can do from his agenda that would be possible without Congress
1:04.7	getting involved at all. I think the two most important ones from an economic
1:09.1	point of view first trade policy and then second some changes on immigration. So on trade you
1:16.8	know the president does have pretty broad authority to adjust tariffs,
1:20.1	pull out of trade deals, etc.
1:22.8	And on immigration, as we've seen the current president
1:25.8	is able to use executive orders to make adjustments
1:28.7	to enforcement of current rules,
1:30.3	and Trump probably could as well. Beyond that, you know, the other big focus I think is going to be for a lot of people what he does just on the regulatory side.
	...

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