Defining the Terms of Brexit

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Julia McGonagle

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 14 November 2016

⏱️ 29 minutes

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Summary

As the UK moves closer to triggering formal talks on its exit from the European Union, investors are focused on the terms of the new relationship it will strike with Brussels. Goldman Sachs' Chief European Economist Huw Pill discusses the spectrum of issues to be resolved in the negotiations and what the ultimate outcome between a "hard" or "soft" Brexit means for the UK, Europe and the global economy. This podcast was recorded on November 8, 2016. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Exchanges at Goldman Sachs where people from our firm share their insights on developments
0:13.4	currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:16.3	I'm Jake Seawert, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.
0:20.0	It's been four months since the Brexit vote stunned global markets and while we now have some clarity
0:24.8	about what to expect and when to expect it, plenty of uncertainty remains.
0:28.9	I'm joined today by Hugh Pill, Goldman Sachs's chief European economist to discuss the latest developments, how negotiations
0:35.6	might play out, and the implications for Central Bank policies and growth.
0:39.3	Hugh, welcome to the program.
0:40.7	Thank you very much.
0:41.7	You were last on the program in June. There's been a
0:44.1	lot of talks since then about how Brexit will take shape with what's being called a
0:47.5	hard Brexit looking more likely. There's no one definition of that. What does it mean to you a hard Brexit?
0:53.8	Well I think when I was last year we talked about the vote being a vote for
0:58.6	uncertainty in a lot of respects. So it was clearly a rejection of the status quo, but it wasn't really a vote for anything specific.
1:06.0	And no one knew the path at the time.
1:08.0	No one knew the path, no one knew what Brexit meant.
1:11.0	The new Prime Minister, Mrs. May, her original formulation was Brexit means Brexit,
1:16.6	which brought her some time, but perhaps didn't really clarify the issue by nature.
1:21.2	So I think the debate has become a little bit polarised between the idea we have a soft Brexit, which perhaps means that essentially the UK may institutionally leave some of the machinery of the EU, so it formally is outside the
1:35.0	EU. But nonetheless it remains de facto a part of things like the single market for goods
1:40.5	and services, and as a result it has a status perhaps similar to that
1:45.5	which Norway has in the European economic area where it's not fully
	...

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