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Animal Spirits Podcast

Talk Your Book: Real World Betting Markets

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.1K Ratings

🗓️ 1 November 2021

⏱️ 31 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We spoke with Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour about betting on the outcomes of real-world events. Find complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Like us on Facebook And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today's animal spirits talk your book is brought to you by Kelsi, the real-life Betty market,

0:05.6

where you can put your money where your mouth is.

0:08.4

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

0:13.1

Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

0:19.3

Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson work for Ritholds Wealth Management.

0:22.8

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions

0:27.3

and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholds Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational

0:31.8

purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Ritholds Wealth

0:36.1

Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

0:40.4

So when Michael and I get into our argument from time to time, it's possible. We could put our

0:44.8

argument if it's a yes and no binary outcome. This housing unaffordable. I thought about that.

0:50.8

We're trying to figure out ways to do this. Here's one for you. Will GDP increase by more than

0:54.8

6% in Q3? This thing is awesome. So go to calcium.com slash join slash spirits to check out their

1:02.3

markets. Check this one out, Ben. There's one will pre-K be made universal before November 8th,

1:11.2

2021. Unfortunately, that's a no. There's not enough time. But there's another one.

1:16.1

Will the salt deduction cap be raised? So the reason why I'm so bullish on this platform

1:22.1

in a real way is because financial institutions, if they wanted to bet on binary events,

1:28.0

what would they do? They would buy it or sell derivatives based on what they think might happen.

1:33.9

But the problem as we've seen, as we experience over and over and over again with the markets,

1:38.0

is that you can be right on the news or the outcome, but you can completely bungle the trade.

1:43.8

You can get the market reaction precisely wrong. So instead of having to go to the second level of,

1:50.0

okay, I think this event will happen. And then here's what I think will happen in the markets.

...

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