Taking the temperature of the US consumer

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.7 • 9.5K Ratings

🗓️ 12 October 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

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Summary

Economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index can tell us a lot about the past, but what about the future? For close to 80 years, policymakers have relied on the Surveys of Consumers to give them an idea of what the economy might do next. Today on the show, we go behind the curtain at the University of Michigan to meet the people in charge of checking the vibes of the U.S. consumer.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	NPR.
0:12.0	This is the Indicator from Planet Money.
0:13.6	I'm Darian Woods.
0:14.9	And I'm Whelan Wong.
0:16.2	New inflation numbers are out today and the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September
0:21.4	from August.
0:23.1	Inflation is up 3.7% from a year ago.
0:25.9	And of course the Federal Reserve is watching these numbers closely.
0:29.5	They want to see whether their interest rate hikes have been effective in bringing down
0:33.6	inflation.
0:35.3	But that CPI data reflects the past.
0:38.9	Policy makers also want to know how people are thinking about the future.
0:43.4	Are they saving money or are they spending it?
0:46.0	Are they trying to look for a new job?
0:48.2	The way people feel about the economy is an important leading indicator, something that
0:53.0	signals where the economy is headed.
0:55.7	And there was one group of researchers that's been asking people how they feel for almost
1:00.0	80 years.
1:01.3	We have been measuring vibes since 1946.
1:04.0	Vibecheck 46, I remember it well.
1:08.2	I knew it Darian, I knew you were a time traveler.
1:11.4	I am, or at least very elderly.
	...

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